Ernstfall – What if Russia Attacks NATO? Inside a German Wargame

In Episode 2, Germany’s crisis cabinet tries to move from reacting to taking the initiative. The Blue Team orders military exercises in Lithuania to demonstrate resolve. But the Bundeswehr is still in the process of building up its permanent brigade there.

At the same time, the German government runs into another obstacle: Germany’s federal system requires constant coordination between Berlin and the sixteen federal states, slowing decision-making as the crisis accelerates.

Within NATO, surveillance flights are stepped up to build a clearer picture of Russian troop movements. Then the situation changes once again. Russian forces cross into Lithuania, and what...

Imagine this: It is October 2026. The day has barely begun when Germany’s federal government is confronted with its gravest security crisis in decades. In a fictional scenario, Russia is threatening NATO’s eastern flank while the United States is reluctant to become involved.

To understand how Germany would respond under these conditions, WELT, together with the German Wargaming Center at Helmut Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces in Hamburg, conducted a high-level public wargame.

We wanted to answer three questions: What happens if Russia attacks a NATO ally? How would Germany respond? And where are the weaknesses in its...

What if Russia attacked NATO? How would Germany respond? And where are our weaknesses?

We wanted answers. In a wargame, we simulate an attack on NATO’s eastern flank. Politicians, former military officials, and experts take on the roles of the German government for a day. A second team plays the Kremlin.

The wargame triggered an international debate. It's the reason we decided to publish our results in English as well. In this five-part podcast, you'll hear a simulation of a crisis that many European leaders hope will never happen.

Script and Storytelling: Antonia Beckermann, Carolina Drüten
Production: Marvin Schwarz

If...