Ernstfall – What if Russia Attacks NATO? Inside a German Wargame

The wargame is heading toward a decisive moment. In our fictional scenario, Russian troops are digging in. And Europe is struggling to find a response that neither triggers panic at home nor signals weakness abroad. The overarching question is: Who is really in control of the escalation?

Episode 5 focuses on the battle for the narrative and the political costs of military decisions. A large-scale communications campaign aims to make it clear who is really attacking here and who is defending itself.

But that doesn’t change the situation on the ground. Because NATO’s most forceful option remains blocked in our...

Europe's post-war order is facing its most severe test yet in our simulation. While the fictional German cabinet searches for a way out, the Red Team playing the Kremlin has a plan ready — one that targets Germany's role as NATO's logistical hub. In the Baltic Sea, Berlin faces a dilemma, and the ministers and their advisors are forced to take a long, hard look at themselves, as the Chancellor puts it.

As Germany in our wargame calls up reservists, improvises accommodation for soldiers, and hospitals confront questions of triage and priority, a core strategic question moves to center stage:...

What happens when a looming escalation suddenly becomes reality? In our wargame, Russian troops have entered southern Lithuania, blocking the only land corridor connecting the Baltic states to the rest of NATO territory. Berlin responds, seeking to keep the state functioning. But its measures are aimed primarily at maintaining stability at home rather than confronting Moscow.

In Episode 3 of "Ernstfall – What If Russia Attacks NATO?" the fictional federal cabinet turns its attention to Washington. Will NATO's most important ally stand with Europe—the only power capable of providing credible security guarantees in such a crisis? At the same time,...

In Episode 2, Germany’s crisis cabinet tries to move from reacting to taking the initiative. The Blue Team orders military exercises in Lithuania to demonstrate resolve. But the Bundeswehr is still in the process of building up its permanent brigade there.

At the same time, the German government runs into another obstacle: Germany’s federal system requires constant coordination between Berlin and the sixteen federal states, slowing decision-making as the crisis accelerates.

Within NATO, surveillance flights are stepped up to build a clearer picture of Russian troop movements. Then the situation changes once again. Russian forces cross into Lithuania, and what...