Episode 3: Emergency Powers

00:00:08: Good evening.

00:00:08: After Russian troops entered southern Lithuania overnight, German Chancellor Peter Tauber has announced consequences.

00:00:15: We now turn to his televised address.

00:00:19: Fellow citizens Since this morning we have been facing a new and serious situation after the invasion of Ukraine.

00:00:35: The target is our NATO ally and fellow EU member, Lithuania.

00:00:45: When a German chancellor addresses the nation... ...the situation is serious.

00:00:50: Olaf Scholz did so on February twenty-fourth, twenty-twenty two….

00:00:54: …the day Russia launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine.

00:00:59: Angela Merkel did it in March twenty-two when the Covid pandemic brought public life to a halt And Gerhard Schroeder used such an address in the year two thousand and three to explain Germany's opposition to the Iraq war.

00:01:15: In The War Game, it is now October twenty-eight, twenty-twenty six.

00:01:20: In early hours of the morning Russian troops entered Lithuania.

00:01:25: They have occupied a corridor roughly sixty five kilometers wide –the only land connection between Baltic states and the rest of NATO territory–and worst case scenario has become reality.

00:01:39: The crisis had been escalating step by step.

00:01:43: After a large Russian-Belarussian military exercise, thousands of Russian troops remained stationed near the Lithuanian border.

00:01:52: At that same time hybrid attacks targeted both the Baltics and Germany Including cyberattacks on Germany's savings banks.

00:02:02: German government responded sending warships into the Baltic Sea ordering Bundeswehr exercises in Lithuania and activating emergency mechanisms designed to keep the state functioning during a crisis.

00:02:17: It was not enough to deter Russia.

00:02:20: At night, Russian troops crossed the border.

00:02:25: A quick reminder All developments of this war game are fictional.

00:02:30: The news broadcasts were generated with artificial intelligence.

00:02:34: We condemn these military aggression In the strongest possible terms.

00:02:38: The federal government is doing everything in its power to restore peace and ensure that you can live in safety.

00:03:20: What if Russia attacks NATO?

00:03:23: Inside a German wargame.

00:03:25: Episode three, emergency powers.

00:03:35: At the end of episode two Team Russia took advantage of fact that American position is vague and at times even contradictory.

00:03:43: They decided to speak directly with Americans.

00:03:47: The US president was unavailable so the Kremlin calls the Secretary of State instead.

00:03:53: And for that conversation, the Red Team has prepared a strategy.

00:03:58: That's where we need to focus in particular on driving a wedge between the United States and Europe at this critical moment.

00:04:05: What are the specific points we want to raise?

00:04:09: There was the Russian Foreign Minister The Russian President and his military chief respond.

00:04:16: We will start off by thanking the American side For its efforts To achieve a ceasefire In Ukraine.

00:04:22: I'd immediately cast them in the role of mediator.

00:04:24: I would emphasize that this should be a bilateral process.

00:04:28: Above all, we should stress that We see United States as a mediator Not an active party to NATO.

00:04:36: The three men on the Red Team have put themselves into Kremlin's shoes.

00:04:42: They had to think like the adversary In their logic.

00:04:46: Great powers decide the fate of smaller countries.

00:04:50: That is why the Red Team wants to strike a deal with Washington over the hearts of Europeans, ideally at a summit bringing together Russian and American presidents.

00:05:01: And their agenda will focus on new peace architecture for Europe in bilateral economic relations.

00:05:09: The plan is set!

00:05:11: The Russian president picks up phone calls from US Secretary of State.

00:05:17: Hi Mr.

00:05:18: Secretary The Russian president gets straight to the point.

00:05:23: So we would re-energize a process of rearranging the European security architecture with U.S participation?

00:05:32: Step by step, he works through his talking points.

00:05:36: He does not treat the United States as part of NATO but has power in its own right and makes the American side a concrete proposal.

00:05:45: We are happy welcome like let's say, thirty unarmed US monitors to be embedded there and have ability to monitor that human rights are not violated.

00:05:56: And so on... We're totally open for that!

00:05:59: we were really looking for a solution

00:06:01: here.".

00:06:03: If the Americans accepted it they would NOT be acting as Lithuania's ally but as neutral mediator of the ground.

00:06:13: But the U.S secretary-of state does not take debate In the war game, he is played by Jeff Radke a former U.S.

00:06:20: diplomat and NATO official.

00:06:23: He's sitting in Washington D.C.

00:06:25: He may be quite reluctant to send American troops whether it's observers or unarmed.

00:06:35: instead makes clear that United States views Russia's move critically.

00:06:41: There is extreme worry about your presence of your troops.

00:06:45: It is something that we can't

00:06:47: ignore.".

00:06:50: What really matters, however….

00:06:52: …is what the US Secretary of State isn't saying.

00:06:56: He's not drawing any red lines... ...he's NOT demanding an immediate withdrawal from Russian troops and he doesn't threaten any consequences.

00:07:06: The truth is nobody knows how the United States would respond in a crisis like this.

00:07:12: But Europeans increasingly have reasons to believe America might not come to their rescue.

00:07:17: of worse comes to

00:07:18: worst.".

00:07:19: Donald Trump says he's strongly considering pulling the U.S out-of-the-nato alliance, unhappy with the reluctance of some members The Trump administration is making cuts to what it contributes to NATO.

00:07:33: Washington plans to slash key U.S.

00:07:35: deep-strike capabilities on the continent by half, raising fresh questions about NATO's readiness and America's long term commitment... ...to European

00:07:44: security.".

00:07:44: How far are you willing to go?

00:07:46: To acquire green?

00:07:48: You'll find out!

00:07:50: For years, Washington has urged Europe take greater responsibility for its own defense.

00:07:57: Under Donald Trump, that message has become much more explicit.

00:08:01: The National Security Strategy published in November twenty-twenty five states that quote the days of the United States propping up the entire world order like Atlas are over.

00:08:13: it then lays out America's regional priorities.

00:08:17: first comes to Western Hemisphere.

00:08:19: second Asia above all China and the Indo Pacific.

00:08:25: Europe only comes after.

00:08:28: Against that backdrop, it is not surprising... ...that the American Secretary of State reacts cautiously in our war game.

00:08:35: What's more, Europe's crisis comes at an awkward moment for Washington.

00:08:40: These actions by the Russian side have put the United States….

00:08:43: …in a very uncomfortable

00:08:45: position.".

00:08:46: In The War Game, It Is Late October, twenty-twenty six.

00:08:50: The US is just days away from the midterm elections.

00:08:55: At this time Domestic politics tends to dominate the agenda.

00:09:01: As the call comes to an end, The Kremlin leader reiterates that he wants to speak directly with U.S president.

00:09:08: Then he hangs up.

00:09:09: I'm looking forward to speaking to your President.

00:09:12: Take care Bye-bye!

00:09:15: The red team is pleased That Americans have not taken a clear position.

00:09:20: Very good Yes.

00:09:28: During our simulation Only short corridor separates the Red Team the Kremlin, from The Blue Team representing the German government.

00:10:03: Lithuania, the country under attack wants it to be triggered.

00:10:07: But for that to happen all NATO allies have to be on board.

00:10:16: Here too The US Secretary of State makes it abundantly clear where the U.S stands.

00:10:22: Washington is determined Under no circumstances To be drawn into a new war.

00:10:27: in Europe.

00:10:28: People are raising all sorts of concerns about whether the United States is going to get wrapped up in a conflict that, frankly we thought had been addressed several months ago.

00:10:40: The German Foreign Minister pushes back... But it's crystal clear they were under attack!

00:10:46: ...the Polish Prime Minister sees it the same way In the war game he was played by security analyst Bartłomiej Kot who joins the discussion from Warsaw.

00:10:57: He calls for a firm response to Russian aggression.

00:11:07: The NATO Secretary General is equally concerned by the American position.

00:11:20: A lot of American troops, at least in Eastern Europe may not be available.

00:11:26: They are on standby to be redeployed into the Western Hemisphere... ...at an yet unclear

00:11:32: time.".

00:11:34: When we designed The Wargame….

00:11:36: …the future of the American military presence and Europe was already uncertain.

00:11:41: That is why we deliberately chose not to factor U.S.

00:11:44: troops stationed in the Baltics into the simulation.

00:11:48: Since then events have moved in that direction.

00:11:52: The rotational deployment of more than a thousand US soldiers in Lithuania has ended.

00:11:58: Unlike previous rotations, no follow-on force has yet arrived.

00:12:03: as Washington reviews its military posture in Europe In the war game, the NATO Secretary General now tries to make clear just how serious this situation has become.

00:12:22: What are Russian troops doing in Lithuania?

00:12:25: Are they already on the territory of Lithuana?

00:12:28: Is this an Article V situation and is there World War

00:12:33: III?".

00:12:36: That's not at all what US Secretary-of-State wants to hear.

00:12:40: First, he says... We don't want do anything that might call into question a constructive relationship with Russia, including economically.

00:12:59: And finally... More sanctions?

00:13:02: That's something that we've got to be very careful

00:13:04: about.".

00:13:06: The United States agreed to convene the North Atlantic Council but refused to treat the meeting as an Article V consultation — no collective defence—no immediate consequences for Russia's actions.

00:13:20: In effect, NATO is deadlocked comes to an end.

00:13:27: Let's briefly take stock.

00:13:30: Russia has invaded part of Lithuania, thereby attacking NATO.

00:13:36: The Alliance has defence plans for exactly this kind of scenario.

00:13:40: NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe – better known as Sakhir — has the authority to reposition forces and raise their level of readiness But there is no automatic military response.

00:13:53: To actually put those plans into action, a political decision is required.

00:13:59: And as we've just heard that decision has not been taken yet After his call with the US Secretary of State The NATO secretary-general and Polish Prime Minister German Chancellor sums up this situation.

00:14:14: It seems to me Americans want turn this conflict into purely domestic European issue.

00:14:20: The foreign minister comes at same conclusion We have to let go of the idea that the United States will, in a short term be willing even engage in discussion about invoking NATO's collective defence clause.

00:14:31: So we must prepare for the fact that necessary deterrence and solidarity with Lithuania... ...will come from

00:14:37: us.".

00:14:37: And the compelling question now arises is how do we respond within our capabilities?

00:14:44: Both within the Alliance AND at national level!

00:14:49: The blue team are convinced they cannot wait for Americans.

00:14:54: They begin discussing how Germany should respond to the Russian attack.

00:14:58: You'll hear more about it in a moment, but first let's step back into the neighbouring room.

00:15:05: That is where the Red Team are planning their next phase of its strategy – To render Germany incapable of acting.

00:15:13: When it comes to Germany It's best sticked with the tried and tested strategy of carrot-and-stick.

00:15:18: The Carrot is mainly economic including the resumption of cheap energy supplies.

00:15:24: That's the Russian Foreign Minister.

00:15:27: In other words, Russia is looking for internal divisions it can exploit.

00:15:32: We can exploit a whole range of vulnerabilities in Germany to achieve our strategic objectives.

00:15:38: At the top-of-the list Is the desire To resume economic cooperation and energy imports.

00:15:43: There is strong lobbying For this particularly in parts Of Eastern Germany business community And some extent within government.

00:15:51: This is where we can drive a wedge.

00:15:56: The Kremlin is wasting no time, Team Russia offers team Germany talks on what they call a peaceful solution to the humanitarian crisis in Kaliningrad.

00:16:07: On Russian state television aimed at an international audience it sounds like this... The Kremlin has proposed talks with Germany to address a humanitarian crisis in Russia's Kaliningrad region.

00:16:28: Moscow accuses Lithuania of blocking transit routes, cutting off supplies of food medicine and basic goods for civilians.

00:16:40: You may remember this from the scenario leading up to the war game.

00:16:43: In the months before the escalation Moscow repeatedly tried to lure Berlin with economic incentives cheap gas contracts and investments in eastern Germany.

00:16:54: The offers were aimed at politicians from the far-right AfD, the left wing BSV but also at voices within Germany's governing social democrats.

00:17:06: Germany is almost always governed by coalition governments where different parties have to find common positions.

00:17:14: Within those parties opinions on Russia sanctions and military escalation can differ.

00:17:21: Our war game does not recreate the exact composition of current German government, but it does reflect that political reality.

00:17:30: Around-the-table sit politicians from Germany's main governing parties bringing different instincts and priorities into discussion.

00:17:39: As crisis deepens those differences begin to matter.

00:17:43: The Foreign Minister played by Social Democrat Michael Roth addresses this issue.

00:17:49: Since August, we've had this absurd proposal from the Russians on a table offering us cheap energy.

00:17:54: And you know that usual suspects in Eastern Germany are already starting to say... ...that they may have to seriously consider

00:18:00: it.".

00:18:01: By the way Mr Chancellor….

00:18:02: That's not just people for my own party but also yours!

00:18:07: Similar calls exist in real life.

00:18:10: Last November, for example, Michael Kretschmer the federal minister of the eastern German state of Saxony and a leading politician in the center-right CDU argued that Germany should resume buying Russian energy once a ceasefire in Ukraine had been reached.

00:18:26: In the war game The Russians have laid a second trap.

00:18:30: Then there is the second proposal to expand economic cooperation and these sanctions.

00:18:34: I think we need to send A very clear no.

00:18:38: i know That's not an easy position To take Even within my own party.

00:18:41: But we have to make it clear that in light of Russia's escalation, We are not prepared even considerate.

00:18:47: but To do that... ...we finally need to resolve the problems within this coalition.

00:18:52: The Chancellor calls for unity!

00:18:55: We must also stand up to those voices Within our own country That is calling us back down.

00:19:00: I would highly welcome as acting much more As a unified front In situation like these.

00:19:07: The discussion then turns into another question Would additional sanctions have any impact on Russia?

00:19:14: The Interior Minister raises the issue with the Chancellor.

00:19:18: We urgently need to discuss measures that could actually put pressure on Russia, and that brings me back to the question of frozen assets – what do we do about them?

00:19:26: And what additional sanctions should be

00:19:28: imposed?".

00:19:29: I'm somewhat lacking in imagination as to what further sanctions we should come up with given those ones haven't yielded a desired effect.

00:19:38: That's exactly why I brought up the frozen Russian assets.

00:19:41: No, it really isn't!

00:19:46: Perhaps you should ask your own party about that?

00:19:48: I would be interested to hear the Finance Minister opinion on this matter.

00:19:53: It is well known that government as a whole supports using frozen Russian central bank assets but... were currently stuck at the European level because Belgium, where these assets are held by a private company, Euroclear is asking for guarantees from other EU member states so that it doesn't have to carry the financial risk alone.

00:20:19: The idea of leveraging Russian assets was not new – the EU originally planned to use this funds as loan for Ukraine.

00:20:27: However Belgium feared that Russia could later sue for damages, leaving a single country liable to the financial risk.

00:20:36: We're talking about roughly one hundred ninety billion euros in frozen Russian assets.

00:20:41: under the usual EU burden-sharing formula Germany would be responsible for about a quarter of the guarantees.

00:20:49: That's close to fifty billion euros.

00:20:51: we will have at least inform the budget committee.

00:20:54: politically I think it would even require a decision in the parliament.

00:20:59: The core Russian assets remain untouched to this day, with aid to Ukraine being financed through joint EU debt instead.

00:21:08: In any case Germany cannot decide on its own what do with frozen Russian assets.

00:21:14: But the blue team agrees that Russia must face stronger economic consequences despite opposition from within their political parties.

00:21:23: The foreign minister now takes the floor.

00:21:26: We really should push to finally end all energy ties with Russia.

00:21:29: We should discuss this privately, with the French and others as well.

00:21:32: I mean nuclear cooperation is still ongoing And that area's extremely sensitive.

00:21:39: The blue team is now finding its stride –the coalition which had been bickering only moments earlier suddenly appears united.

00:21:47: The chancellor and his ministers tighten economic screws agreeing on a package of measures termination of all remaining economic ties.

00:21:55: Frozen assets?

00:21:56: Yes, suspension of visas for Russian business people.

00:21:59: Inspections of the shadow fleet.

00:22:01: Interdiction with Russian shipping.

00:22:04: Russian businesspeople will no longer receive visas.

00:22:08: Berlin ends all remaining energy ties with Russia presses France to do the same and pushes to make use of frozen russian assets.

00:22:18: The blue team also turns its attention to Russia's shadow fleet.

00:22:22: These are aging oil tankers used to circumvent Western sanctions.

00:22:27: They often sail without insurance, switching off their tracking systems and have repeatedly appeared near sites where undersea cables in Europe had been damaged.

00:22:38: The blue team decides put a stop on that in the Baltic Sea.

00:22:43: The intelligence chief takes the floor.

00:22:46: We can take implement robust measures into the Baltics sea.

00:22:48: since backshipping bound for Kilinegrad & St Petersburg.

00:22:52: The Bundeswehr must put a stop to Russian piracy in the Baltic Sea.

00:22:56: Yes, indeed!

00:22:58: Within Germany's exclusive economic zone and the Baltics sea where Berlin has special jurisdiction, Russian tankers are to be systematically inspected.

00:23:09: Shadow fleet vessels will be stopped searched and turned back.

00:23:13: If other Baltic countries, including Poland the Baltic states and Finland joined the effort it would create a dense network of maritime controls.

00:23:24: The Baltic Sea however is not only theater of economic leverage but also critical military importance.

00:23:33: Russia's advance into Lithuania has direct consequences.

00:23:38: NATOs main land route to the Baltics state are now blocked.

00:23:43: The Chancellor and the Inspector General of Bundeswehr discuss what that means.

00:23:48: The key question is whether the Corridor has been blocked in such a way.

00:23:52: we can no longer move additional troops into Lithuania by land, That still needs to be assessed because if it's the case We would have to consider using sea routes as an alternative.

00:24:03: Couldn't you also airlift forces?

00:24:06: Yes absolutely!

00:24:07: The question would then be, also from a broader NATO perspective under what conditions those forces could actually land and where exactly we'd deploy them.

00:24:18: But transporting them there is not the

00:24:19: issue.".

00:24:25: Facing a blocked land route into Lithuania changes the equation for NATO.

00:24:31: Reinforcements will now have to arrive by sea or air.

00:24:36: These same routes are needed in order to evacuate civilians of the Baltic states should that become necessary?

00:24:43: But the Baltic Sea is just as important to Russia.

00:24:47: St Petersburg is Moscow's gateway to the Western Baltic sea, while Kaliningrad — Russia's heavily militarized exclave— sits at its center.

00:24:56: That is why the blue team wants NATO to establish full maritime control in the Baltics' sea To ensure Allied forces can move freely whilst restricting Russia's ability to operate there.

00:25:09: As for A-II AD, we would need a major electronic and air power response.

00:25:13: From the NATO perspective that is something we can manage with capabilities such as F-XV.

00:25:19: Our own Air Force assets will also be part of this.

00:25:22: By then we already have our first F-xv in service while Tornadoes are still operational.

00:25:30: A-IAD stands for Anti Access Area Denial.

00:25:35: The idea is to make an area so heavily monitored and defended that an adversary can no longer operate without facing significant risk.

00:25:45: In the Baltic Sea, That would mean combining radar surveillance assets fighter jets And air defense systems To restrict Russia's freedom of movement!

00:25:55: The aim Is to prevent Russian ships & aircraft from moving freely in the region.

00:26:01: Germany could never achieve this on its own.

00:26:04: It would require close coordination with the other NATO countries bordering the Baltic Sea, at least.

00:26:11: Not all of these actors are represented in our war game as the simulation focuses on German political decision-making but throughout the simulation The Blue Team assumes that NATO Allies will implement this military measures together.

00:26:26: Overall it is important we view the Baltics sea as a joint operational theatre together with Finland and Sweden.

00:26:33: Having discussed land, air and sea the Inspector General now turns to a fourth domain – cyberspace.

00:26:42: It is an area where Germany is already under attack but where legal restraints leave it with only limited options to strike back.

00:26:50: I would like come back to this cyber issue At that moment we are still operating in something of illegal grey zone.

00:26:57: For example Bundeswehrs allowed conduct reconnaissance right upto password barrier.

00:27:02: In other words, we know exactly where the targets are that we would want to strike.

00:27:06: But we're not allowed take action unless Parliament approves it – a state of tension is declared and so on!

00:27:13: So the real question as what extent should launch our own cyber campaign disrupting an actively countering Russian operations?

00:27:33: Even if authorities know where an attack originates, they generally cannot penetrate foreign service disrupt them or stop and attacked by technical means.

00:27:44: A quick reminder in our war game Germany's savings banks network has been hit by a major cyberattack.

00:27:52: Experts are working around the clock to contain damage but striking back is not option.

00:27:59: The real German government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz is seeking to expand the powers of Germany's security agencies, including a possibility for more active cyber-defense.

00:28:11: But at the time our war game and this recording those powers have not yet become law!

00:28:19: That's where Germany's constitutional Spannungsfall comes into play – the state of tension.

00:28:25: It describes a state of external emergency in which an armed attack on Germany is considered likely.

00:28:33: Declaring it activates an entire package of emergency laws and powers In the wargame, The Defence Minister therefore wants Parliament to declare a State Of Tension.

00:28:44: Given this situation – And with German troops in Lithuania as well many German citizens across Baltic states potentially affected I believe that time has come for Parliament To declare a state.

00:28:54: The President of the Federal Office for Civil Protection is in favor.

00:29:01: I strongly support the Defense Minister's proposal to declare a state of tension.

00:29:06: Host nation support means that hundreds-of thousands of Allied troops may have to move through Germany.

00:29:12: That requires extensive civilian support, transport capacity logistics and many other services.

00:29:20: We might even need start preparing hospitals now.

00:29:23: All this takes time.

00:29:26: Host-nation support means preparing Germany to receive and sustain Allied forces.

00:29:32: If NATO invokes Article V, hundreds of thousands of troops could move across German territory.

00:29:40: In such a scenario, Germany would not necessarily sit on the front line – it'd be NATO's logistical backbone.

00:29:48: Allied forces need fuel, accommodation or supplies.

00:29:53: Casualties might have been treated in German hospitals.

00:29:56: Declaring a state of tension would make much of that easier.

00:30:00: It could, for example allow the government to require parts of industry... ...to prioritize production for armed forces.

00:30:08: But The political threshold To get this measure through parliament is high.

00:30:13: A State of Tension requires a simple majority right?

00:30:15: No two-thirds At two thirds Majority in Parliament Is required.

00:30:21: During Germany's previous legislative term, mainstream parties held that majority.

00:30:28: Today they do not –.

00:30:30: a government would need support from either the far-right AfD or far left Die Linke to reach that necessary threshold.

00:30:39: Those have so far been excluded by most of the political mainstream which means any move in this direction holds considerable potential for a political stir.

00:30:51: How are you going to secure a majority?

00:30:54: If the State of Tension cannot be declared, we can through extensive cabinet work activate six or seven other ten laws linked to it individually each with a simple majority.

00:31:05: The Defence Minister is working on a Plan B in case Parliament does not approve a state of tension.

00:31:11: In that case lawmakers could instead vote on individual emergency measures separately Each requiring only a simple Majority.

00:31:21: One example concerns Germany's civil protection legislation.

00:31:25: Among other things, it regulates the obligations of public officials during a national emergency.

00:31:32: An IT director at a federal agency for example could be required to remain in Germany and stay available for duty rather than travel abroad.

00:31:43: In The Wargame, German government decides take bigger step.

00:31:47: after all It asks parliament declare state-of tension.

00:31:52: It is now up to our white cell, the Wargame Adjudication... ...to decide whether the measure succeeds.

00:31:59: That role was performed by the German Wargaming Centre at Helmut Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces in Hamburg.

00:32:10: The Measure Succeeds.

00:32:13: Inside the Blue Team's room….

00:32:14: …the government spokesperson receives a note informing her that Parliament has approved the measure.

00:32:21: I have just received an update.

00:32:23: According to the news agencies, Parliament has narrowly approved the declaration of a state-of emergency.

00:32:30: A sigh of relief goes through The Blue Team.

00:32:34: We can now begin stockpiling fuel gas and other essential supplies without any delay.

00:32:40: On the civilian side we're now waiting for NATO to invoke Article V. That's when Allied troops would be moving across Germany.

00:32:49: Is this realistic development?

00:32:52: Nikolange, a security expert and former chief of staff at Germany's Ministry of Defense thinks it is.

00:32:59: He has been observing the war game from the sidelines in Hamburg... ...and explains the reasoning behind it.

00:33:05: I don't think its realistic to assume that simply because parties are now represented in parliament That essentially echo Russian foreign policy There would be no constitutional majority for declaring state-of-tension.

00:33:19: People in Germany are not stupid.

00:33:20: They see what's going on, they're adults and if such an attack really occurred nobody would be able to ignore it or deny it.

00:33:30: Declaring a state of tension has far-reaching consequences Not only for the economy but society as whole.

00:33:37: I have just coordinated with the Defence Minister.

00:33:40: Just so everyone is clear A State Of Tension Automatically Triggers Conscription.

00:33:46: Declaring a state of tension automatically brings back conscription in Germany, with consequences for hundreds or thousands people.

00:33:58: Breaking news from Berlin!

00:34:00: All adult men are now once again subject to compulsory military service.

00:34:05: Following Parliament's declaration that the State of Tension, Conscription suspended over the past fifteen years comes into force The Ministry of Defence says there will be no immediate call-up.

00:34:17: Instead, preparations will begin to restart the medical examinations required for conscription.

00:34:23: The right-to-conscientious objection remains

00:34:25: unchanged.".

00:34:28: Until two thousand eleven, conscription in Germany meant receiving a letter from government attending a medical examination and if found fit for service being called up for military duty.

00:34:40: Today it would be impossible process and mobilize entire age groups at short notice.

00:34:46: Germany no longer has the infrastructure to do so.

00:34:50: There are too few instructors, too little accommodation and many of the local military recruitment offices have long since been closed.

00:35:00: Even though declaring a state of tension would mark the beginning of broader mobilization The government will start preparing its country for the possibility of prolonged conflict As the Finance Minister points out.

00:35:16: I just want to point out, given the discussion about conscription we may be facing economic losses in the coming months.

00:35:23: Since we don't know how long this situation will last.

00:35:27: i would reserve option of imposing a budget freeze across all ministries later this year.

00:35:37: Let's briefly take stock.

00:35:39: Russia has invaded part of Lithuania under the guise of humanitarian operation.

00:35:46: The blue team is now responding to that attack.

00:35:49: The chancellor and his ministers have agreed on sweeping economic measures, tightened control over shipping in the Baltic Sea….

00:35:57: …and taken steps to restrict Russia's military freedom of movement there.

00:36:02: Parliament has also declared a state of tension –the red team knows nothing about these decisions yet!

00:36:09: Around the table, three men playing the Kremlin are preparing for different ways the blue team might respond to the invasion.

00:36:17: The military chief now outlines a plan for further escalation.

00:36:23: As part of my planning I have also prepared detailed attack plans against Germany in case economic and diplomatic pressure fails.

00:36:32: I think we also need to make the German public understand just how vulnerable they would be to a Russian attack.

00:36:40: From the Red Team's perspective, everything hinges on one question – will Germany emerge as the political and military driving force between a decisive NATO response?

00:36:52: The main objective from our military perspective is to destroy Germany's role in NATO's logistical hub.

00:37:02: Coming up in Episode IV The Russian team discusses which German cities they could target.

00:37:09: Europe is weighing whether to confront Russia without the United States and Germany faces a series of decisions about military escalation, including whether to sink a Russian warship.

00:37:23: This was Ernst Falle.

00:37:26: What if Russia attacks NATO inside a German wargame?

00:37:30: The series consists of five episodes published weekly.

00:37:35: Episode four will be out on the fifteenth of July.

00:37:39: If you have any questions or remarks, write us an e-mail to wargame at welt.de.

00:37:46: That's wargameatwelt.de.

00:37:54: Script and Storytelling.

00:37:55: Karolina Drüten & Antonia Beckermann.

00:37:57: Production & Sound Design.

00:37:59: Marvin Schwarz Project Leeds.

00:38:02: Antonia Beckermann Karolina Drüten & Karoline Turzer.

00:38:05: Research support.

00:38:06: Jan Rosenkranz.

00:38:08: Academic guidance Josef Werbowski and Philipp Jan Schäfer from the German Wargaming Center at Helmut Schmidt University, The Bundeswehr-University in Hamburg.

00:38:16: Cover design Dominik Schmidt.

00:38:19: Our special thanks go to the participants of the wargame David McAllister Jörg Asmussen Gerhard Konrad Alexander Gabouyev Franz Stefan Gardi Christiane Hoffmann Roderich Kiesewetter Bart Wommeykott.

00:38:46: We're grateful to the fellow journalists who lend their voices... ...to English-language version of our German participants' quotes.

00:39:04: James Rothwell, and Konstantin Schreiber.

00:39:08: We would also like to thank the Helmholtz-Mitt University in Hamburg for providing The Venue as well as Ellen Edwards, Malene Badun, Tobias Graboff, Till Henniges, Karl Hofnagel, Elias Jakob, Thorsten Kodalle, Nikolange & Wim Ortt for their support on site And Nanna Brink, Kai Brinkmann und Nils Lange.