Episode 2: Invasion

00:00:04: Hello everyone, this is the Secretary of State.

00:00:07: I've just been rousted from my

00:00:09: sleep.".

00:00:12: Washington DC In The Wargame it's October twenty-twenty six to thirty a.m.. Just few hours earlier US Secretary of state had gone too bad.

00:00:23: He was abruptly woken by call from close aide who tells him that new crisis unfolding in Europe.

00:00:30: Lithuania, a NATO ally suspects Russian special forces have infiltrated its territory and fears a larger-scale attack.

00:00:40: In the war game he is played by Jeff Ratke – a former US diplomat & NATO official.

00:00:46: Since he's American you are hearing his original voice whereas German speaking participants have been dubbed by fellow journalists.

00:00:54: I just want to give my reactions keeping in mind that it's very early here, and Washington.

00:01:01: On the other side of The Atlantic leaders in Berlin Paris & Warsaw have long been in meetings with their ministers.

00:01:08: Europe is six hours ahead of US East Coast.

00:01:12: In Washington inquiries are pouring in.

00:01:15: Where do Americans stand?

00:01:17: How will NATO respond?

00:01:20: Still sounding slightly groggy the Secretary of State sends a message to America allies.

00:01:26: There is an allegation that there might be Russian troops in Lithuania, and that's something quite serious.

00:01:35: if it turns out to be true.

00:01:37: I look forward talking with you all within the NATO alliance which the United States remains a firm supporter

00:01:44: of.".

00:01:46: The US is the most important country in nature –the only power that could truly defend Europe.

00:01:55: If Russian troops were to appear somewhere in Eastern Europe, the entire continent would first look at Washington.

00:02:02: Because NATO's core promise is this – an attack on one as an attack of all!

00:02:10: In last episode Team Russia laid out its plan… An Attack On Lithuania.

00:02:16: Publicly however The Kremlin presents it a humanitarian operation.

00:02:25: Vilnius is only thirty kilometers away.

00:02:29: To make one thing clear, the so-called humanitarian emergency in Kaliningrad that the Russian leadership was talking about has completely fabricated.

00:02:38: The real aim is to create a political pretext for an invasion.

00:02:43: The Kremlin used similar humanitarian justifications for its actions and the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine without any factual basis.

00:02:52: The same pretext is now being used to send Russian troops into Lithuania.

00:03:01: If Russia follows through on its plans, one crucial question immediately arises – Is Washington prepared to stand alongside the Europeans?

00:03:13: But there's another question too!

00:03:15: Has Germany understood Moscow real intentions?

00:03:19: Do the chancellor his ministers and advisors grasp how close this crisis is to spiraling out of control?

00:03:26: In episode one they assessed the situation.

00:03:30: Now, they have to make decisions and won't be making them alone but together with their allies.

00:03:36: The Russians are moving fast!

00:03:39: The question is whether the West can keep up?

00:03:54: My name is Karolina Drüten.

00:03:56: I am an international security correspondent at the German media outlet Welt.

00:04:01: This is Ernst Falle.

00:04:03: What if Russia attacks NATO inside a german war game Episode two, invasion.

00:04:16: The US Secretary of State had been cautious but he reaffirmed America's commitment to NATO.

00:04:22: the president sends a very different signal shortly afterward.

00:04:27: He has no interest in another conflict on Europe after as he sees it having just ended the war and Ukraine.

00:04:34: When reporters asking about the situation in Lithuania... ...he says he believes Vladimir Putin wants peace.

00:04:42: The American response is divided and in Europe nobody knows which position will ultimately prevail.

00:04:51: To be honest, In my view the American position does not really change situation.

00:04:57: This was our war game Chancellor.

00:04:59: He's sitting at a room at Helmut Schmidt University of German Armed Forces in Hamburg where simulation has taken place.

00:05:07: Around table with him are former senior officials politicians experts The Blue Team.

00:05:14: Together, they are simulating a crisis meeting of the German government.

00:05:19: For decades Europe assumed that in the end the United States would stand by NATO militarily Under Donald Trump.

00:05:28: That assumption no longer feels guaranteed.

00:05:31: And yet...the blue team is still hoping Washington will ultimately step-in once again But with the American position unclear, The German government begins preparing its own response.

00:05:55: What I'd like to see is for everyone around this table, think about how we can take the initiative in our respective areas and show other side that are capable of acting.

00:06:14: In terms of deterrence i believe it's exactly what need do And people in Germany and allies expect from us.

00:06:24: Deterrence means dissuade Russia taking next step.

00:06:28: The basic idea is that the price of an attack would be so high,

00:06:42: I

00:06:58: would like to instruct the Inspector General of the Armed Forces... ...to examine how we can conduct exercises at a lower level in the Baltics.

00:07:06: With our brigade, but also with our allies.

00:07:09: The aim is to show that as part of normal operations We are capable carrying out such exercises and demonstrating our readiness to defend.

00:07:19: The Inspector General is Germany's highest ranking soldier And federal government senior military advisor.

00:07:26: The Defence Minister wants to send a signal that the German Brigade in Lithuania is ready.

00:07:32: In reality, however it's still being built up and not expected to reach full operational capability before the end of twenty-twenty seven.

00:07:41: That is why the defence minister turns to the inspector general for an assessment.

00:07:46: We could launch a campaign centred around increased military exercises in Lithuania.

00:07:51: we've done this before practical terms means sending troops there.

00:07:55: Looking at the timeline, it's October now.

00:07:57: I would estimate we could do within next four

00:08:00: weeks.".

00:08:02: The blue team decides to move ahead with a measure.

00:08:06: There is one important rule in the war game In each round teams can debate as much they want but end must settle on three concrete decisions Because in real life too resources are limited and governments cannot implement every measure at once.

00:08:24: The blue team chooses to send a clear signal – military exercises in Lithuania.

00:08:30: In practice, that would mean German soldiers travelling to Lithuanya in the coming weeks by ship and overland through Poland….

00:08:37: …to take part on military drills there!

00:08:40: The navy is also beginning to prepare for this crisis.

00:08:43: Increase maritime presence at Baltic Sea and Black Sea for reconnaissance and air defence.

00:08:50: Soon warships begin leaving German ports.

00:08:53: Everything sea-worthy is heading for the Baltic Sea, including Saxon class frigates.

00:09:00: Germany has three of these great giants as they are called.

00:09:04: Using their radar systems They can monitor the airspace and intercept hostile aircraft missiles and drones.

00:09:11: Other NATO countries also sending ships into the Baltics and Black Seas.

00:09:16: The Blue Team also instructs Germany's intelligence service to intensify surveillance and reconnaissance.

00:09:23: Russia is no longer supposed to make a single move unnoticed.

00:09:36: Brussels At NATO headquarters, operations are running around the clock.

00:09:42: The secretary-general in constant contact with allied capitals In the war game... ...the role played by Oana Lungescu A true NATO insider.

00:09:53: For many years she served as the alliance's chief spokesperson and closely advised two secretaries general.

00:10:01: She is now on the phone with a Chancellor in Berlin.

00:10:04: To increase our vigilance, I will propose that we step up surveillance flights without AWACS planes at Geiland-Kirchen.

00:10:15: She explains what NATO can do to get better pictures of Russian troop movements.

00:10:20: However i have some gaps.

00:10:23: only two or three planes are currently operational.

00:10:27: As you know, they're over forty years old so they need some

00:10:31: upgrades.".

00:10:33: In the war game Poland and Lithuania begin reinforcing their troops at a critical point – The Suvalki Gap.

00:10:41: You can think of it as a bottleneck When you look at the map.

00:10:45: Poland lies to the south Lithuanya to the north Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

00:10:51: west Russia's ally Belarus east.

00:10:55: The border between Poland and Lithuania is only about sixty-five kilometers long, barely more than a short drive on the highway.

00:11:04: For NATO this narrow strip of land is the only ground connection to its Baltic member states further north.

00:11:11: If Russia were to cut off the gap militarily Estonia Latvia and Lithuania would be isolated from the rest of the alliance.

00:11:20: That is why this area is considered one of the most dangerous strategic flashpoints in Europe.

00:11:26: In The Wargame, the Russian team are preparing to target it but that's not their only option.

00:11:33: Mr Military Chief you're ready outline a few options.

00:11:37: let us briefly go

00:11:38: through them and my assessment.

00:11:41: there two possible options.

00:11:44: In Red Team, the military chief as architect on invasion plans

00:11:49: One option purely from a geographical perspective, would be a corridor running along the railway line and the main transport routes crossing Lithuania from east to west.

00:12:01: A quick reminder – in The Wargame it is October twenty-twenty six.

00:12:06: Earlier on this scenario, a Russian train made an unscheduled stop just beyond the Lithuanian border.

00:12:13: These trains do in fact travel daily between Russia and Kaliningrad passing through Belarus and Lithuanya along the way.

00:12:21: In Lithuania, passengers are strictly forbidden from boarding or leaving the trains.

00:12:26: Which makes what happens in our scenario all the more alarming.

00:12:30: Armed men escape from the train.

00:12:34: Lithuanian authorities suspect that they're Russian special forces and their right.

00:12:40: Those eighteen men?

00:12:41: They're

00:12:42: our own people of course.

00:12:44: The railway line from which the men escaped is strategically important.

00:12:49: It forms a backbone of the first military option that Russians are discussing, an advance along the tracks straight through Lithuania – from the Belarusian border to Kaliningrad.

00:13:00: The roads in this area were well developed allowing military vehicles move forward quickly.

00:13:07: The major downside for military perspective was significant risk of escalation.

00:13:13: Lithuania's main artery could come under Russian control.

00:13:18: Vilnius, the capital would lie within reach of Russian troops.

00:13:23: The second major issue is that if we bypass Vilnias to the south We will very likely encounter elements of the German brigade.

00:13:33: German soldiers Would then be facing Kremlin troops directly But the Russians want to avoid a major escalation.

00:13:41: Their goal is to create facts on the ground without triggering NATO's Collective Defence Clause, Article V. That is why the military chief proposes a second option – this one centres... ...on the Suvalki Gap.

00:13:56: We can establish fire control over the Suvalki Gap….

00:13:59: …without having to send military personnel directly into Lithuania.

00:14:04: With forces currently at my disposal we could use multiple rocket launchers artillery, mines and based on what we learned in the war in Ukraine drones to prevent NATO forces from moving through the Swarki gap without physically establishing defensive positions inside Lithuania.

00:14:22: Russia's foreign minister now joins the discussion.

00:14:25: I have a question on that.

00:14:26: The two options you outlined.

00:14:28: What would they mean for the German Brigade?

00:14:30: The brigade is not yet at full combat strength.

00:14:34: It lacks sufficient air and missile defence capabilities And according to our intelligence assessments, it also doesn't have enough ammunition To sustain prolonged resistance.

00:14:45: In other words the Russians do not believe The German Brigade can stop them.

00:14:56: While Moscow is drawing up attack plans Countless lines of communication Are converging in Berlin.

00:15:03: Externally Germany wants to project readiness and resolve Internally.

00:15:08: however another question Is just as critical.

00:15:12: How does the German state remain functional in a crisis like this?

00:15:16: Domestically, we need to make measures to clarify what our reserves can actually do.

00:15:21: Where we may need to protect critical infrastructure and how our reservists support the Interior Ministry of Potential Operations.

00:15:29: That was the Defence Minister.

00:15:31: He is concerned that existing personnel and emergency structures could quickly reach their limits.

00:15:38: Reservists would help ease the burden.

00:15:40: The Finance Minister points to the economic risks involved.

00:16:10: They also serve in the fire brigade, in civil protection or work and emergency services.

00:16:16: That makes it harder to release them from their civilian duties.

00:16:19: I suggest that the National Security Council address this issue And that preparations are made early on Together with a chambers of commerce To identify which reservists can be called up So we don't mobilize wrong people Or wait too long.

00:16:35: Two different approaches Are at odds here.

00:16:38: From defense perspective The state needs additional personnel But pulling up people into reserve service can create shortages elsewhere.

00:16:47: That means decisions about which reservists to call-up have to be planned very carefully and in many areas Berlin cannot act alone.

00:16:57: I also want to point out the limits of what we actually do at a federal level.

00:17:01: All this requires coordination with the Federal states.

00:17:04: Yes, if legal conditions are met then talking civil protection measures And in that case, the federal government can issue orders.

00:17:12: But at this point we do not have full authority over the states and that is a problem because it requires

00:17:18: coordination.".

00:17:22: The Interior Minister is raising an important point here.

00:17:26: Germany is a Federal state shaped by a post-war system designed to prevent too much power from being concentrated on one central Government.

00:17:35: Many responsibilities, including policing and large parts of critical infrastructure lie within the sixteen federal states.

00:17:43: Not Berlin!

00:17:44: But in a fast-moving crisis like this... ...the system can also slow decision making.

00:17:50: From our perspective it's essential that government functions remain operational at all levels of state during these crises.

00:17:59: This is Christoph Unger.

00:18:01: For many years, he had a Germany's Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance.

00:18:07: The agency responsible for preparing the country for crises, disasters and wartime emergencies.

00:18:14: In the war game He is stepping back into his former role.

00:18:18: We have instruments available And I'd advise using them... ...for example the civil emergency planning system.

00:18:26: Germany's civil emergency planning system is essentially an internal switch into crisis mode.

00:18:33: Every authority from the federal government down to small local administrations has predefined emergency procedures that can then be activated.

00:18:42: Crisis staffs are assembled, on-call personnel alerted warning systems activated and information chains put in motion.

00:18:51: The Federal Government also begins issuing instructions for the States.

00:18:56: In the war game, government takes two additional decisions.

00:19:01: One is to convene the National Security Council.

00:19:04: in this format not only ministers but also representatives of federal states and private companies can be brought-in.

00:19:12: Germany isn't yet entering a formal state of emergency But it's shifting into crisis mode And wants the public see that

00:19:22: As confidence building measure.

00:19:23: I would like one final point on table increasing the visible presence of state institutions in public spaces.

00:19:30: Mm-hmm, agree

00:19:31: Soldiers police officers emergency responders people serving in these organizations should be encouraged to wear their uniforms in public.

00:19:41: The story quickly becomes headline news on evening television and at this point another reminder all developments in our war game are fictional.

00:19:51: The news broadcasts you're about to hear were generated with artificial intelligence.

00:19:59: Across Germany, the signs of crisis are becoming visible.

00:20:03: Soldiers police officers and emergency personnel Are now appearing publicly in uniform as the government moves To reassure the population and demonstrate state readiness.

00:20:12: Earlier today, Germany activated its civil emergency planning system for the first time In history.

00:20:18: Crisis staffs and emergency coordination centres across the country are now operating at heightened readiness.

00:20:26: The Red Team also learns of measures taken by Germans, which remain unimpressed.

00:20:32: They expect nothing from what we will do!

00:20:36: Your respect for the Germans used to be greater Mr President?

00:20:39: Yes back then

00:20:41: that's water under bridge….

00:20:43: They're so small-minded

00:20:45: it is

00:20:45: unbelievable.

00:20:49: The Russians have one major advantage here.

00:20:52: They already know that they've decided to invade Lithuania, the blue team by contrast is reacting towards what it can see – hybrid attacks, troop movements and warnings coming out of Vilnius!

00:21:06: From a German's perspective, measures taken are necessary in an uncertain situation.

00:21:12: From a Russian perspective however, the German response looks hesitant or slow.

00:21:18: This is how the Russian Foreign Minister describes it.

00:21:29: The

00:21:42: Russian military chief is now thinking aloud about Germany's decision to send additional ships for air defense into the Baltic Sea and reinforce its troops in Lithuania.

00:22:04: For us, the

00:22:11: conclusion is once again that we would need to move quickly.

00:22:16: As long as we can establish this corridor within seventy-two hours We could prevent a rapid NATO response.

00:22:22: Frankly I cannot imagine a truly fast reaction Within the first forty eight hours

00:22:30: and That's exactly what Russia does.

00:22:37: The following night at three o'clock in the morning Russian troops crossed into Lithuania from Belarus.

00:22:44: Moscow calls them peacekeeping forces, whose sole purpose is to protect the humanitarian convoy heading to Kaliningrad.

00:22:54: In reality however a heavily armed mechanized force is rolling across the border.

00:23:01: Russia plans operation like a pincer movement.

00:23:04: troops push westward from Belarus while units move eastward.

00:23:10: Within twenty-four hours, they link up in a strategically important city.

00:23:15: The militia key to the Baltics is the City of Mariampola.

00:23:19: Critical

00:23:19: transport routes converge there and it's effectively the only major land route through which NATO reinforcements and supplies could move.

00:23:28: One of Russia main objectives would therefore be to seize this city as quickly as possible.

00:23:37: Lithuanians had begun digging anti tank trenches & laying mines But their country was small.

00:23:44: It has a population of just three million people and no fighter jets off its own.

00:23:50: From the war in Ukraine, The Russians know very well how to clear minefields.

00:23:55: They use artillery and drones to blast through defensive lines And push though gaps Without outside support.

00:24:02: Lithuania cannot hold back an assault on this scale.

00:24:12: Russian troops now control the only land connection between the Baltics and the rest of NATO territory.

00:24:19: Around the corridor, they establish a danger zone using mines, rocket launchers drones and air defense systems designed to prevent anyone from pushing them back out of their territory.

00:24:31: they have seized The Kremlin's men stand on Lithuanian soil.

00:24:36: Russia

00:24:37: has invaded a native country without formally declaring war.

00:24:43: A note at this point….

00:24:45: This does not, of course mean that Lithuania would simply stand by and watch!

00:24:50: In our reporting from Lithuanya military officials told us they closely monitored Russian & Belarusian troop movements And that they'd respond to suspicious activity with deployments on their own.

00:25:03: However according analysts – Lithuana cannot defend itself against Russia alone.

00:25:09: The country's security ultimately hinges on whether NATO Allies are willing and able to come towards defence, And how quickly they do so.

00:25:20: Back To the War Game Inside the blue team – the Inspector General of Bundeswehr reports on their latest developments.

00:25:29: At three am local time this morning around twelve thousand Russian troops crossed the Belarusian border headed toward Kaliningrad.

00:25:36: This is a clear violation of Alliance territory involving a significant number of troops.

00:25:42: This

00:25:48: was the Intelligence Chief, then the Defence Minister speaks.

00:25:53: As far as the Slovakia corridor's concerned The very existence in three Baltic states is at risk – five point six million people If that corridor were to be sealed off and done so militarily without international assistance We would have to consider this an armed blockade aimed at cutting off all the Baltic states.

00:26:10: That means we, in any case... ...have to move beyond consultations and put the Collective Defence Clause on the

00:26:15: table.".

00:26:18: The Defence Minister is referring to NATO's collective defence clause Article V. Under it….

00:26:24: …an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all.

00:26:29: If Article V is invoked An enormous military machinery is set into motion.

00:26:35: But that requires agreement from all member states, including the United States whose position in The Wargame is still unclear.

00:26:45: One step below Article V as Article IV.

00:26:48: Under that provision a Member State can request consultations with its allies if it believes its territorial integrity or security are under threat In The War Game.

00:26:59: Lithuania has already done so.

00:27:02: Inside the blue team, one question is now moving to the centre of discussion.

00:27:08: A question every government hopes it never has to answer.

00:27:13: The Chancellor says it out loud.

00:27:15: Let me state this very clearly If only one German soldier is killed in combat by Russian forces then for me that's a State of Defence.

00:27:26: In Germany, a state of defence is a formal legal status.

00:27:31: It means the country considers itself under attack and it triggers far-reaching political and military powers For the government spokesperson.

00:27:40: The time has come for the chancellor to address the nation.

00:27:43: Under these circumstances I believe that you Mr Chancellor should definitely deliver a televised address this evening is to build trust among the public on one hand and, on the other two clearly state that although this situation is very serious we are well prepared.

00:28:02: Absolutely.

00:28:04: Hanging over all of these is a question raised at the beginning Will the United States stand alongside Europe?

00:28:13: Because without America NATO would struggle to defend the Baltics.

00:28:18: Germany's foreign minister now urges the chancellor to clarify where everyone stands.

00:28:24: That is why I must urgently insist this has to be handled at a very top level, you need to speak with Trump

00:28:30: directly.".

00:28:33: But before the Germans get that chance to do so Moscow exploits this moment of uncertainty.

00:28:40: The Russian president picks up his phone himself and calls US State Department.

00:28:52: I decided to call myself

00:28:55: because of the gravity

00:28:57: of this situation.

00:29:01: Next, the Americans will have to decide where they stand.

00:29:05: The chancellor addresses the nation... ...the first cracks begin appear inside Germany's governing coalition And inside the Kremlin….

00:29:15: …Tagplan against Germany is suddenly on a table.

00:29:20: This was Ernstfeil.

00:29:22: What if Russia attacks NATO?

00:29:24: Inside a German Wargame.

00:29:26: The series consists of five episodes, published weekly.

00:29:31: Episode three will be out on the eighth of July.

00:29:34: If you have any questions or remarks write us an email to wargameatveld.de.

00:29:41: That's wargame at welt.de.

00:29:48: Script and storytelling Karolina Drüten & Antonia Beckermann.

00:29:52: Production and sound design.

00:29:53: Marvin Schwarz Project Leeds, Antonia Beckermann, Karolina Drüten and Caroline Tuertzer.

00:29:59: Research Support Jan Rosenkranz.

00:30:02: Academic Guidance Josef Werbowski & Philipp Jan Schäfer from the German Wargaming Center at Helmut Schmidt University – The Bundeswehr-University in Hamburg.

00:30:11: Cover Design Dominic Schmidt.

00:30:14: Our special thanks go to the participants of the wargame David McAllister Jörg Asmussen Gerhard Konrad Alexander Gabouyev Franz Stephan Gadi.

00:30:40: We're grateful to the fellow journalists who lend their voices... ...to the English-language version of our German participants' quotes.

00:30:54: Philipp Fritz, Eric Kirschbaum, Chris Lunday, Nikolas Potter James Rothwell and Konstantin Schreiber.

00:31:02: We would also like to thank the Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg for providing The Venue as well as Ellen Edwards Malene Badun Tobias Graboff Till Henniges Karl-Hufnagel Elias Jakob Torsten Kodalle Nicolange & Wim Ord for their support on site And Nanna Brink Kai Brinkmann and Nils Lange for their valuable contributions to the conceptual discussions.