Episode 4: Europe Without America

00:00:10: That's what it sounds like when Russian drones strike targets in Kiev.

00:00:19: In Ukraine, Russia has learned how to deploy drones in large numbers and across long distances.

00:00:25: They are cheap difficult-to-intercept And militarily effective.

00:00:31: The Kremlin is now demonstrating those capabilities beyond Ukraine as well though in different ways than on the battlefield there.

00:00:39: Russian drones have already appeared in European NATO countries too.

00:00:43: Breaking news out of Poland, the military there accusing Moscow of an

00:00:47: act of aggression after Polish and

00:00:49: NATO forces scrambled

00:00:50: to shoot down Russian drones

00:00:52: that violated its airspace.

00:00:55: This was a CNN report from September twenty-twenty five.

00:00:59: at The time the drones were shot down by Western fighter jets.

00:01:03: no one was injured.

00:01:05: But if Russia and nature where in direct military confrontation things could look very different.

00:01:12: At the end of last episode, you heard the Russian team discuss an attack plan against Germany.

00:01:18: And in that plan drones play an essential role!

00:01:23: But first let's start with a quick recap on where we stand at the war game.

00:01:30: It is late October twenty-twenty six.

00:01:33: The red team.

00:01:34: Russia has invaded southern Lithuania and established a corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad.

00:01:42: A quick reminder to this point everything your hearing is fictional.

00:01:46: The US, NATO's most important member is effectively out of the picture.

00:01:51: Germany and other Europeans are on their own.

00:01:55: German Chancellor and his ministers have responded to Russian incursion with tough economic sanctions... ...and measures targeting Russia's shadow fleet.

00:02:03: Together with other NATO countries, Germany now wants monitor Baltic Sea so closely that Russian ships can no longer move freely there.

00:02:14: In addition, the German parliament has declared what is known as a state of tension.

00:02:19: A constitutional emergency measure that automatically brings back military conscription.

00:02:24: The Red Team does not yet know about these decisions but it's about to find out.

00:02:30: We still have plenty of arrows left in the quiver Plenty ways to escalate further if we have

00:02:36: one.

00:02:38: One of those arrows is aimed at Germany.

00:02:54: My name is Karolina Drüten.

00:02:56: I'm the international security correspondent at The German Media Outlet Welt.

00:03:00: This is Ernstfall, what if Russia attacks NATO inside a German war game?

00:03:07: Episode four Europe without America.

00:03:20: As part of my planning i have also developed A detailed attack plan against Germany.

00:03:26: It focuses primarily on Germany's logistics hubs and critical infrastructure.

00:03:31: On one hand I target them with missile strikes ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

00:03:37: Then there'd be long-range drone attacks, we now have that capability as a result of the war on

00:03:42: Ukraine.".

00:03:43: At the same time they would also be terrorists and sabotage operations as part of the hybrid campaign

00:03:51: That was Russian military chief.

00:03:53: He is referring to capabilities Russia has developed during the war in Ukraine particularly its ability to strike targets hundreds of kilometers behind the front line with drones.

00:04:03: His conclusion is clear Germany is vulnerable.

00:04:08: Here, I would rely primarily on what's known as a saturation strategy.

00:04:13: Germanies and missile defences are very limited.

00:04:16: they simply don't have enough interceptor missiles.

00:04:19: They've virtually no effective counter-drone capabilities.

00:04:23: At the moment, Germany has NO credible military response to an attack at that scale.

00:04:29: These plans are based on a scenario in which NATO results to collective defence, for example by launching a counter-offensive against Russian forces and Lithuania overland through Poland.

00:04:41: That would mean up to hundreds of thousands of allied troops moving across Germany on their way to the front line.

00:04:47: From Russia's perspective The priority would then be to cripple that logistical lifeline –the russian military chief already has specific targets at mind.

00:04:57: I would carry out precision strikes against the rail infrastructure and port of Grima Hafen, which is main entry point for heavy US equipment.

00:05:06: I'd also target LNG terminals in Wilhelm-Safen & Lukmin.

00:05:11: At same time we would activate sleeper cells to sabotage key rail links.

00:05:16: Another option would be drone attacks on individual commercial vessels in North Sea And offshore wind farms to disrupt power supply Drone strikes against major industrial hubs.

00:05:30: An attack on Germany is not a decision the Red Team has already taken, it's a contingency plan One they are keeping in reserve incase Berlin and NATO from Moscow perspective go too far.

00:05:42: I think this option i've just outlined should be part of negotiations as threat I don't think we need to implement within first twenty four hours but keep it in reserve.

00:05:55: The Russian Foreign Minister agrees

00:05:57: When it comes to Germany, its best stick-to-the-tried and tested strategy of Carrot & Stick.

00:06:02: For now we're showing the stick not yet using with all measures you've just outlined.

00:06:10: Behind players on a screen hanging onto wall The blue team's decisions are appearing.

00:06:16: German Wargaming Centre which runs the adjudication exercise has stuff in both rooms.

00:06:23: Whenever one team takes decision It is passed into other side.

00:06:28: The three men on the Russian team are now reacting to Germany's latest moves.

00:06:32: What I find interesting, Are these relatively tough economic measures?

00:06:37: We're essentially trying to lure them in and they aren't deliberately doing the opposite not engaging with that at all but instead escalating In the economics sphere.

00:06:47: what is interesting Is there isn't a single measure here To reinforce NATO's true presence ?

00:06:53: In the end, the forces NATO currently has And the Baltics simply aren't sufficient to disrupt our corridor.

00:07:00: The blue team has adopted tough economic measures, but from the Russian perspective none of them threatens Moscow's core objective.

00:07:09: Our objective right now is simply get this corridor through.

00:07:13: Once we've done that We are in a completely different world and somehow all of these misses the point.

00:07:20: Maybe their goal is simply show they're acting That there strong, sending a strong signal but they're not actually solving the problem.

00:07:29: The military chief now turns his attention to Baltic Sea.

00:07:33: Germany and other NATO countries bordering the Baltic have decided to monitor it so closely that Russia can no longer use it freely for military operations.

00:07:44: There's little Moscow could do about this.

00:07:47: From a purely military perspective, we are in fear of NATO and Baltic sea.

00:07:51: I wouldn't commit too many resources to trying to break through NATO's A-to-AD bubble there.

00:07:58: Instead, I'd focus on what countermeasures are available for

00:08:01: us.".

00:08:02: One option he says would be to isolate Lithuania by sea.

00:08:07: For example we could impose a naval blockade by sending special forces from Russia's Baltic Fleet To lay offensive minefields in the approaches of the port of Klaipeda.

00:08:18: But Russian President sees no reason to escalate any further At least now!

00:08:24: I wouldn't do that at this stage.

00:08:25: No, okay.

00:08:27: It's good that we have these plans?

00:08:29: Okay But

00:08:29: for now We're not using them!

00:08:31: We stay calm.

00:08:33: Nobody is doing anything about the humanitarian corridor.

00:08:36: Everything's fine.

00:08:38: I think our interest right now Is to buy time And not allow ourselves To get distracted by side issues.

00:08:44: The most important thing For other sides should've been To secure unity between America and Europe.

00:08:49: Instead, Germany in particular has focused entirely on itself – the state attention conscription and so on.

00:08:57: None of that is really relevant to a crisis moving this

00:09:01: fast.

00:09:02: We've effectively attacked an NATO country And Germany hasn't responded forcefully.

00:09:10: One of Germany's decisions however Is beginning to concern The Russian President.

00:09:15: There was one thing That really annoys me This naval brigade Of our shadow fleet.

00:09:21: We need to respond that we can't ignore it.

00:09:24: This is basically an act

00:09:25: of war

00:09:26: and everything else.

00:09:27: I don't care.

00:09:29: the red team decides To call a meeting at The United Nations Security Council accusing nature Of what?

00:09:36: It calls aggression in the Baltic Sea.

00:09:40: as A permanent member of the council Russia has the right to put items on the agenda, the president Suggests a second measure.

00:09:48: Maybe we should put out a statement saying that From now on, all ships heading to Russia or transporting Russian goods will be escorted

00:09:57: by our

00:09:57: navy.

00:09:58: That's what we'll

00:09:59: do."

00:10:01: In other words – Russia raises the cost of Germany's decision!

00:10:06: From now-on, Russian warships will escort the tankers off the shadow fleet.

00:10:11: Any attempt by NATO countries to inspect them could escalate into a direct military confrontation.

00:10:30: In the room next door, the blue team is informed of Russia's move and immediately realizes what that means.

00:10:37: The chancellor is the first to raise this issue.

00:10:41: Civilian shipping is now under the escort of Russian Navy.

00:10:44: Including their shadow fleet?

00:10:46: Definitely!

00:10:47: Perhaps we should sink one of those ships...

00:10:50: Behind Chancellor's pointed remark lies a tricky question… If Russia starts protecting its tankers with warships How far is Germany actually prepared to go to enforce its own decisions?

00:11:03: The question that arises for me, if we stick this course of action and in the future shadow fleet vessels are escorted by Russian Navy.

00:11:11: Are we ready stop these ships regardless?

00:11:14: after all

00:11:15: it's

00:11:15: our objective operation?

00:11:18: I think so.

00:11:18: yes If scale back measures now would amounting down We should continue the inspections carried out by federal police, the Coast Guard and military.

00:11:27: And report any vessels that fail to cooperate at international

00:11:30: level.".

00:11:31: But again if a shadow fleet vessel refuses boarding or if Russian Navy prevents it what do we do?

00:11:37: Do we just report it in withdrawal…or enforce the boarding?

00:11:41: A lot will depend on the military balance of this region but be ready for that next step – simply reporting them won't be enough!

00:11:48: Then we need to take a long, hard look at ourselves because that obviously could mean using live fire.

00:11:57: The chancellor is now wrestling with the decision the blue team thought it had already made.

00:12:02: Until this point... ...the assumption has been Poland and Baltic states would join Germany in enforcing controls on the shadow fleet But will they still do so if shots were fired?

00:12:14: A unilateral German operation as out of question?

00:12:18: If that is what the Alliance decides, we are ready to have German ships enforce it.

00:12:23: But haven't actually reached Article V yet?

00:12:25: We've not!

00:12:26: We still don't know whether the Americans will support it….

00:12:29: Exactly Chancellor – I understood you'd say that the Americans remain very hesitant.

00:12:34: Article V hasn't been invoked yet.

00:12:37: This debate reveals something more fundamental.

00:12:41: For decades, Germany was used to operating on the assumption that in the end The United States would underwrite the highest level of escalation.

00:12:50: Now the blue team is weighing decisions that – and worst case could lead a direct military confrontation without clear backing from Washington.

00:13:03: The

00:13:11: Intelligence Chief picks up on the Foreign Minister's point.

00:13:15: Another important question is to what extent we could form a collision of the willing with the Scandinavian countries?

00:13:21: In fact, with all the NATO

00:13:23: allies around the Baltic Sea...

00:13:25: Definitely!

00:13:26: ...we've

00:13:26: already seen Denmark and also Finland take fairly robust action.

00:13:29: If all the Baltik Allies started enforcing much stricter controls on the shadow fleet together Retta would have decided whether push back or back down.

00:13:38: That We turn it into a game of chicken, and that's exactly where we should take it.

00:13:45: In strategy there is the concept known as The Game Of Chicken.

00:13:49: Imagine two drivers speeding straight towards each other –the first one to swerve loses.

00:13:56: Each driver tries convince others they will never back down.

00:14:02: If neither driver gives way then both crash.

00:14:07: Military deterrence often works in much the same way.

00:14:11: In the end, psychology is what

00:14:13: matters.".

00:14:15: Meanwhile, The Red Team puts its plan into action and makes sure that whole world sees it!

00:14:23: On a Russian state television channel aimed at an international audience —the message sounds like this... a move that has been criticized as aggressive and illegal.

00:14:48: Many of the oil tankers are carrying food for developing

00:14:51: countries.".

00:14:53: Russia claims The Shadow Fleet is transporting not only oil, but also food supplies from the global south.

00:15:01: The message behind?

00:15:03: If the West stops these ships then Russia's not the aggressor – NATO is!

00:15:10: Ultimately, however from the Red Team's perspective The Baltic Sea is a secondary theater.

00:15:16: The real focus remains the corridor through Lithuania.

00:15:20: Russia has created facts on the ground.

00:15:23: now the president wants to turn those military gains into a political reality and he already has a plan for how to do that.

00:15:31: First

00:15:31: we'll send a civilian convoy with supplies in humanitarian aid.

00:15:35: Russian media will be filming the whole thing showing that there really are civilians, they're... That this is completely humanitarian.

00:15:42: We'll do a massive PR operation around it.

00:15:46: Just for context at this point around sixteen thousand Russian troops are positioned along the corridor.

00:15:52: Yes And we need to send these civilians.

00:15:55: The convoy with women and red cross.

00:15:58: Can you follow immediately as in today already?

00:16:01: Absolutely Assuming, of course that our forces haven't encountered any major delays.

00:16:08: You'll hear what the supposedly humanitarian convoy complete with cameras and media spectacle looks like in a moment.

00:16:16: But first let's return to the blue team In Berlin.

00:16:20: attention is now shifting to the Russian land corridor through Lithuania.

00:16:25: The chancellor contemplates under what circumstances Germany has prepared use military force.

00:16:31: It seems necessary for me that we find a framework... ...that does not merely consist of the coalition of the willing.

00:16:37: Otherwise, I don't see how we can justify a deployment of the armed

00:16:40: forces."

00:16:41: If a German brigade is stationed in Lithuania for NATO but NATO doesn't declare Article V and then they get entangled in combat?

00:16:50: And just let them fight on what legal basis

00:16:53: would it

00:16:53: be?".

00:16:56: At this point discussion revolves around two different questions.

00:17:01: The first one's legal Can the Bundeswehr fight in Lithuania at all?

00:17:06: The answer is yes.

00:17:07: If Lithuanya comes under attack, Germany is allowed to assist.

00:17:12: International law recognizes both individual and collective self-defense.

00:17:17: Germany's constitution also permits such a deployment.

00:17:21: Parliament has to approve it but an emergency that approval can come afterward.

00:17:26: Legally NATOs Article V are not required.

00:17:31: Politically, however, it matters a great deal.

00:17:35: That brings us to the second question – under what framework is Germany willing to fight on its own?

00:17:42: As part of European coalition or only if NATO acts as one?

00:17:48: That question is much harder to answer!

00:17:51: To be more casual here in our circle we can't just say well that Brigade happened there so we figured let them fight.

00:17:58: That is no basis.

00:17:59: We cannot justify that, so we need either a European solution or Article

00:18:05: V.".

00:18:07: If NATO's collective defence clause isn't invoked and at this point appears increasingly likely Germany faces the dilemma Berlin does not want to fight alone.

00:18:18: A loose coalition of the willing is politically difficult.

00:18:29: NATO's Article V is what Ukraine has been long seeking, collective defense.

00:18:33: But as the foreign minister pointed out there was also a European option.

00:18:37: that's article forty-two point seven of EU treaty which commits member states to provide all military assistance they can.

00:18:46: The EU also had mutual assistance clause.

00:18:50: It states that if a member state is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, The other Member States are obliged to provide aid and assistance by all means in their power.

00:19:01: It has been only invoked once before.

00:19:04: In two thousand fifteen.

00:19:06: after the terrorist attacks in Paris France asked as European partners for support Primarily in the form of additional contributions To counter terrorism missions And other military operations.

00:19:19: Germany responded by expanding its military deployment in Mali.

00:19:24: In the war game, The Blue Team now discusses that option with President of European Commission.

00:19:32: Good afternoon to Berlin from Brussels!

00:19:35: He is played by David McAllister – a member of the European Parliament From Germany's Christian Democratic Union and Chair Of Its Foreign Affairs Committee.

00:19:47: This

00:19:51: clause does not trigger an automatic military response, it does however require concrete and effective assistance.

00:19:57: That assistance

00:19:57: can take

00:19:58: many forms

00:19:58: – intelligence, military, political or economic.

00:20:02: NATO's Article V carries much greater military weight.

00:20:06: Once it is invoked a vast military machinery is set into motion with pre-existing operational plans in the unified command structure.

00:20:16: The EU's Mutual Assistance Clause is different.

00:20:19: It is more like a commitment to provide assistance than an automatic military response.

00:20:24: But precisely because of that, it's also easier to invoke.

00:20:28: Ultimately however... ...it is up the country under attack

00:20:31: to invoke the clause.

00:20:32: The other member states then decide on nature and extent they provide.

00:20:37: If Lithuania chose this route….

00:20:39: …the European Commission would play a coordinating role.

00:20:43: The decision now rests with Lithuanya.

00:20:49: Quite simply, the Lithuanians cannot imagine the European Union or the European member states stepping in to replace United States.

00:20:56: That's The Foreign Minister

00:20:58: Because understandably they are hoping that the US will stay on board.

00:21:03: But In my view this does not relieve us from responsibility if starting think outside of box.

00:21:09: While Blue team is considering a european response NATO Secretary General calls Berlin.

00:21:16: She wants prevent Europe from acting its own.

00:21:19: If we are not able to call Article V, We can activate the defense plan and make sure that everybody is on the same position.

00:21:28: That would I think send a stronger

00:21:31: message

00:21:32: than every capital wondering

00:21:34: Are we

00:21:35: acting under Article V?

00:21:37: Under Article forty two point seven or underwater?

00:21:42: The United States still opposes invoking article five But, she argues, NATO can act even without formally declaring collective defence by activating its regional defence plans for the Baltic states.

00:21:56: My suggestion would be to activate first time the Regional Defence Plan of the Baltics region and Central Europe which will give more capabilities in troops to succour including air defense and also deep strike capabilities.

00:22:15: Those plans run to more than four thousand pages and they are top secret.

00:22:20: Russia is not supposed know how nature would respond in the event of war.

00:22:25: What's publicly known, is that activating the plans will give NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe broader authority through request-and-move forces.

00:22:34: The plans also specify land air maritime space and cyber capabilities needed to defend critical areas In the war game, The Nature Secretary-General says she will propose activating those plans later that day in the Alliance's highest political decision making body where all member states must reach consensus.

00:22:56: I'm going to convene another extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council at seventeen hundred.

00:23:02: In effect?

00:23:03: She is trying trigger military consequences for Article V without formally invoking article five itself.

00:23:10: That matters, because Washington still opposes doing so.

00:23:14: Activating NATO's defense plans does not require a separate vote but it DOES require political consensus among the Allies.

00:23:23: The United States STILL has to be on board Not least – Because It provides capabilities that no other NATO ally can fully replace.

00:23:31: yet Germany's Defense Minister Has another proposal.

00:23:36: Have you already sought out the idea of activating Berlin Plus together with Turkey?

00:23:40: In that way, De Sacre could lead an operation with NATO means for the European Union.

00:23:45: We collectively combined EU and NATO means as we did in the Balkans until two thousand four.

00:23:51: Thank you minister.

00:23:52: I think this is something which can definitely be considered.

00:23:57: After a call, the Defence Minister explains what it would mean to practice.

00:24:02: Berlin plus has an agreement between the EU and Nato that allows them cooperate closely.

00:24:07: The basic idea is that the EU does not build any military capabilities where NATO already has them.

00:24:13: Under the Berlin Plus arrangements, the European Union can conduct military operations using NATO's command structures and capabilities.

00:24:23: The last time this framework had been used was in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

00:24:29: The EU mission operation Altea helped maintain peace after the wars in former Yugoslavia.

00:24:36: Using this format would also reassure Washington that Europe is stepping up.

00:24:41: It would send a strong political signal of unity among NATO and EU member states, And it will also signal to the Americans that Europe understands burden sharing That its stepping-up and taking on more responsibility.

00:24:54: The blue team is beginning to prepare for a Europe without America Even as it keeps the door open to US involvement.

00:25:02: A quick note at this point In the months since we ran the war game That discussion has become real.

00:25:10: European governments are coordinating more closely through new formats such as the E-Five, while EU's readiness for a twenty thirty initiative aims to strengthen Europe's ability to act independently.

00:25:23: After meeting leaders of Baltic states in Berlin and June German Chancellor Friedrich Merz argued that nature had to be more European in order to remain transatlantic.

00:25:35: In the war game, Chancellor and his ministers decide that if Lithuania requests it Germany will work with France or Poland to push for a European mutual assistance response.

00:25:47: The Foreign Minister on Red Team is anything but pleased about this development.

00:25:53: We need to undermine this German objective.

00:25:55: Our goal now is prevent EU from agreeing on activating Solidarity Clause.

00:26:02: Now we need to activate Hungary.

00:26:04: Hungary, Slovakia perhaps

00:26:05: also the

00:26:06: Czech Republic and then there will be a number of other countries that would want to avoid further tensions Spain or Portugal Ireland neutral countries like Austria.

00:26:18: A peaceful coalition for Europe's future.

00:26:23: The red team first move is to lobby Hungary – the Czech republic in Slovakie Countries it describes as quote friends of peace.

00:26:34: When we ran the war game, Viktor Orban was still Hungary's prime minister and widely seen as Moscow's closest partner inside the European Union.

00:26:43: Since then, Hungary elected a new government but The underlying logic remains the same from Russia perspective.

00:26:51: exploiting political divisions within Europe is part of this strategy.

00:26:56: back to the Wargame later that same day the convoy rolls through the Russian control corridor in Lithuania.

00:27:09: Cameras are filming, reporters on the scene.

00:27:13: Russian soldiers escort the convoy.

00:27:16: You may remember this was part of the Red Team's plan to give the corridor a humanitarian appearance.

00:27:24: And once again a quick reminder Everything you're about here is generated with artificial intelligence.

00:27:31: Russian humanitarian convoys have entered the corridor today delivering food and medical supplies for civilians in Kaliningrad.

00:27:39: I'm currently in Kaliningrad talking to a pensioner who has been waiting for food aid for several weeks now.

00:27:44: Sir, please tell me how you're feeling right now?

00:27:48: I

00:27:50: am truly grateful to our brothers

00:27:52: and sisters in Russia.

00:27:53: they

00:27:53: have not let us down.

00:27:54: They think of us

00:27:56: And help

00:27:56: when we need it the most.

00:27:59: Trucks supposedly carrying food & medicine drive bumper-to-bumper.

00:28:05: Russian television reporters conduct interviews.

00:28:08: The Russian Red Cross is there as well.

00:28:11: The organization has been widely criticized internationally over allegations that it has blurred the line between humanitarian work and the Russians' states, political and military objectives.

00:28:24: Russian troops secure the corridor but the cameras stay focused on civilians.

00:28:30: That's exactly the message Moscow wants to send!

00:28:33: The goal is give its military operation political legitimacy while discrediting any NATO response.

00:28:47: Meanwhile, the blue team is busy putting the consequences of state-of-tension into practice.

00:28:54: That includes the return on conscription For the Defence Minister.

00:28:58: it means deciding which reservists should be called up for a refresher training.

00:29:04: Among them are military police

00:29:06: To support the Police with traffic management and preparations to move casualties and refugees.

00:29:12: Second communications and IT personnel.

00:29:16: They are responsible for cyber defense, and for ensuring that reports intelligence and orders can be transmitted quickly and securely across the Army.

00:29:25: Third, the mobilization of reservists to transport logistics and maintenance.

00:29:31: This is about keeping troops supplied with equipment ammunition fuel and food.

00:29:36: It also means carrying out repairs For example when a tank is damaged in combat and transporting casualties and refugees.

00:29:46: Fourth, we've called up medical

00:29:47: personnel.".

00:29:49: The Defense Minister says that is easier said than done.

00:29:54: In

00:30:06: other words many of these people are listed for several different roles But in the end, they can only perform one of them.

00:30:15: Fifth

00:30:15: together with the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce we've instructed all regional chambers to identify employees whose work is indispensable for their companies.

00:30:25: Those will be handed certificates confirming that cannot be called up from military service because there civilian job is considered indispensable For example Because They Work In Critical Infrastructure.

00:30:37: Another priority is safeguarding electrical supply.

00:30:40: That means protecting municipal utilities and power plants against sabotage.

00:30:45: May I chime in there?

00:30:46: Does the Bundeswehr even have enough forces for that?

00:30:49: because to my knowledge, The Homeland Defense Forces are barely sufficient To guarantee the tasks outlined In the Operations Plan Deutschland For the German Logistics Hub Let alone serve as forces to protect our own critical infrastructure.

00:31:02: That's exactly why we're calling up more reservists And expanding refresher training.

00:31:05: Germany's

00:31:05: operational plan is the military blueprint for turning the country into NATO's logistical hub in the event of war.

00:31:15: It sets out how allied troops and equipment would move across Germany, And how civilian authorities critical infrastructure and private companies Would support that effort.

00:31:26: For everything beyond that such as protecting Germany's own critical infrastructure Additional personnel are needed.

00:31:34: That is one reason why the Defence Minister now turns to reservists.

00:31:39: There's a problem though, all of these reservists need somewhere to stay.

00:31:44: We need train far more people than we currently have accommodation for.

00:31:48: The Inspector General of Bundeswehr proposes temporary solution.

00:31:53: We can make use existing military training grounds and set up temporary container housing alongside existing barracks.

00:32:00: That is one option we would need to pursue in parallel, including commissioning the necessary companies to put it into place.

00:32:09: Conscription has only one consequence of this state-of-tension.

00:32:13: Another is the activation of Germany's emergency legislation.

00:32:17: The head of Federal Office for Civil Protection turns on medical care.

00:32:23: In wartime.

00:32:24: hospitals may have to reserve capacity for wounded soldiers.

00:32:28: Hospitals need to

00:32:29: start switching into emergency operations now.

00:32:33: Some patients needing ordinary treatments may have to wait a while, that would have very real consequences for

00:32:39: the broader

00:32:39: public.

00:32:40: Hospitals will keep beds and staff

00:32:43: in reserve

00:32:44: meaning ordinary procedures

00:32:45: like hip

00:32:46: replacements would suddenly be postponed.

00:32:50: Not everyone thinks those steps are necessary at this stage.

00:32:54: I agree we must prepare for it That's absolutely right but we are not yet in a direct military confrontation that would require us, for example to start postponing hip replacement surgeries.

00:33:07: The blue team is working through one concrete measure after another – reservists hospitals supplies.

00:33:15: all of it matters But the discussion remains highly tactical.

00:33:20: The interior minister now steps back and raises more fundamental question

00:33:25: Can anyone at this table assess what the Russians actually want?

00:33:29: What is their objective?

00:33:31: To make the Baltics Russian.

00:33:33: I'd rather say to demonstrate NATO and the EU's inability to act,

00:33:36: And then...to make The Baltic Russian!

00:33:43: In the wargame…the Red Team acts with a clear objective in mind –and tells us story designed to help achieve that objective.

00:33:52: Right at the start of Episode One, the men in Kremlin set out their strategic intentions.

00:33:57: Remember this?

00:33:59: We want to fracture NATO's unity.

00:34:02: Our objective remains the same.

00:34:04: We want a European security architecture that closely resembles one in place, meaning no permanent NATO forces stationed in Eastern

00:34:14: Europe.".

00:34:15: The blue team by contrast never clearly defined its own objectives nor did it spend much time thinking about Russia's strategy.

00:34:25: That raises fundamental question Do we actually understand what other side is trying to achieve?

00:34:32: I ask to speak because i'm increasingly getting the impression that when it comes to communications, especially with our own public we are falling behind events.

00:34:41: The more we act ,the faster Russia turns his narrative against

00:34:44: us.

00:34:46: Earlier you heard how carefully russia staged its military corridor in Lithuania for the cameras.

00:34:51: .The interior minister is worried That the Kremlin's Narrative Is beginning To take hold.

00:34:57: If You look at How this appears from outside.

00:35:00: Russia Agree to a ceasefire In Ukraine.

00:35:03: It presents its military operation as a humanitarian corridor.

00:35:06: It talks about NATO aggression and claims it has no choice but to protect civilian ships with military escorts.

00:35:13: Its spread story is so-called Russophobic actions by the West, And The United States' NATO and European Union appear extremely restrained.

00:35:23: If something goes wrong now we end up looking like the aggressor.

00:35:27: I don't think were doing enough in information space.

00:35:31: we are not explaining clearly enough what's actually happening.

00:35:35: The Chancellor responds...

00:35:49: I

00:36:01: think we urgently need our own narrative and we need to systematically dismantle the Russian one.

00:36:07: We won't keep public support for government decisions by simply reassuring people, but we have to explain clearly what Russia is doing how it's presenting its actions… …and why that narrative is

00:36:18: false.".

00:36:20: On behalf of the federal government you have my full backing in doing

00:36:25: so!

00:36:26: The blue team decides to turn the tables – It wants to regain control over the narrative.

00:36:34: But then the situation shifts once again.

00:36:38: Russia takes another military step, Germany moves troops.

00:36:43: What that means for the balance of power in Europe?

00:36:46: Who ultimately comes out ahead and how closely our war game reflects reality?

00:36:53: That's coming up an episode five.

00:36:55: This was Ernstfeil.

00:36:59: what if Russia attacks NATO inside a German Wargame?

00:37:04: The series consists of five episodes, published weekly.

00:37:09: Episode Five will be out on the twenty-second of July.

00:37:13: If you have any questions or remarks write us an email to wargameatvelt.de.

00:37:20: That's War Game at WELT.DE.

00:37:27: Script and Storytelling Karolina Drüten & Antonia Beckermann Production and Sound Design.

00:37:32: Marvin Schwarz.

00:37:34: Project Leeds.

00:37:35: Antonia Beckermann, Karolina Drüten and Caroline Tuertzer.

00:37:38: Research Support Jan Rosenkranz.

00:37:41: Academic Guidance Josef Werbowski & Philipp Jan Schäfer from the German Wargaming Center at Helmut Schmidt University The Bundeswehr-University in Hamburg.

00:37:50: Cover Design Dominic Schmidt.

00:37:53: Our special thanks go to the participants of the wargame David McAllister Jörg Asmussen Gerhard Konrad Alexander Gabouyev Franz Stefan Gardi Christiane Hoffmann.

00:38:19: We're grateful to the fellow journalists who lend their voices... ...to English-language version of our German participants' quotes.

00:38:34: Eric Kirschbaum, Chris Lunday Nicholas Potter James Rothwell and Konstantin Schreiber.

00:38:41: We would also like to thank the Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg for providing The Venue as well as Ellen Edwards Malene Badun Tobias Graboff Till Henniges Karl-Hufnagel Elias Jakob Torsten Kodalle Nikolange & Wim Ordt For their support on site And Nanna Brink Kai Brinkmann and Nils Lange for their valuable contributions to the conceptual discussions.