Episode 5: Moment of Truth

00:00:06: Wars are fought not only on the battlefield.

00:00:10: They're also fought in people's minds.

00:00:13: Public opinion matters In democracies, it shapes the political room for maneuver.

00:00:23: German leaders know that The Kremlin knows it too!

00:00:33: In last episode you heard how Russia staged its invasion of Lithuania as a humanitarian mission.

00:00:40: Now the blue team wants to turn the tables and regain control of the narrative.

00:00:46: It launches a major public information campaign titled, Russia A Threat To World Peace.

00:00:55: This was the government spokesperson.

00:01:14: The news items you're about to hear were generated with artificial intelligence.

00:01:22: German Chancellor Peter Tauber has described Russia as a threat to world peace.

00:01:27: In an interview with the Evening News, Tauber said Moscow's objective... ...was to undermine Europe's post-war security order.

00:01:37: I have broad public information campaign in mind Large scale posters at bus stops and in public squares And of course, television radio and obviously social media.

00:01:51: The German government has released an intelligence assessment on the events in Lithuania identifying Russia as the aggressor.

00:01:59: according to the report... ...the so-called humanitarian corridor served a pretext for illegal invasion.

00:02:06: German intelligence agencies together with allied partners presented satellite imagery and intercepted communications as evidence.

00:02:17: Intelligence, by definition is usually kept secret.

00:02:21: But sometimes governments choose to make it public.

00:02:24: Even before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine NATO deliberately released intelligence about Russian troop movements and invasion plans To undermine the Kremlin narrative And show what was actually going on In The Wargame, the blue team now does exactly that.

00:02:45: It doesn't change the fact that Russia has created on-the-ground.

00:02:49: But from the Blue Team's perspective, at least the public should be left in no doubt about one thing – who is attacking and who is defending?

00:03:12: My name is Karolina Drüten.

00:03:14: I am the International Security Correspondent At The German Media Outlet Welt.

00:03:20: This is Ehrenstfall.

00:03:22: What if Russia Attacks NATO Inside a German War Game Episode five, Moment of Truth.

00:03:36: The campaign you just heard is the Blue Team's attempt to regain control over the narrative.

00:03:43: By this point it has fallen behind and not only in information space.

00:03:49: A quick recap It still October twenty-twenty six Russia invaded Lithuania and established a military corridor But it is presenting that operation to the world as a humanitarian mission, complete with carefully-staged aid convoy.

00:04:08: The blue team responded with tough economic sanctions and attempted to stop Russia's shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea – and a declaration of state tension.

00:04:18: Conscription on Germany was back.

00:04:20: Reservists are being called up among other things to help protect critical infrastructure But the Alliance's strongest instrument is still not being used.

00:04:32: NATO's Article V The United States remain hesitant.

00:04:39: Germany and its European allies are now having to respond without clear American backing, while Moscow tries to exploit every division it can find.

00:04:49: Russia has also countered NATO's move in the Baltic Sea by sending warships to escort its shadow fleet.

00:04:57: Any inspection now risks turning into a direct military confrontation.

00:05:02: Inside the blue team, this debate has become more fundamental – how far is Germany prepared to go if Article V never invoked?

00:05:13: Several options are on table.

00:05:16: One is article forty-two point seven The European Union's Mutual Assistance Clause.

00:05:22: At the same time, NATO Secretary-General is trying to activate the Alliance's regional defence plans without formally invoking Article V. Whether that succeeds remains uncertain.

00:05:35: Meanwhile – The Red Team is focusing on one thing – territory!

00:05:41: Russia wants to consolidate its corridor in Lithuania….

00:05:45: …the troops begin digging

00:05:47: in."

00:05:48: Now — the follow-on forces are essentially coming out of their staging areas.

00:05:52: In total, we have assembled four armies and are ascending in the next wave of troops also equipped with heavy Prana equipment.

00:06:00: And then our consolidating individual villages and roads fortifying them with additional layered defensive

00:06:06: positions.".

00:06:09: Russia's defenses build up layer by layer.

00:06:12: Troops dig in.

00:06:13: Trenches are dug.

00:06:15: New minefields laid.

00:06:17: Concrete bunkers go up.

00:06:19: Artillery is moved into position.

00:06:21: Tanks are dug-in air and missile defenses are deployed.

00:06:26: In short, Russia is turning the corridor into a fortified military position – one that cannot easily be retaken.

00:06:34: any counteroffensive would now come at much higher cost.

00:06:39: Publicly Moscow justifies all of this as response to what it calls Lithuanian aggression.

00:06:47: Even so, the Russian military chief is not convinced these measures would be enough if NATO ultimately decided to respond as an alliance.

00:06:57: The key question for me purely on a military level... ...is actually how well we can sustain this air defence bomber long-term against potentially attacking NATO jets or instance?

00:07:08: They'd essentially have to attack Russia now!

00:07:10: Exactly So.

00:07:12: the burden of escalation now rests with NATO.

00:07:15: That's an extremely difficult decision, one that could ultimately lead to many deaths and would completely divide NATO.

00:07:23: It is almost

00:07:23: unimaginable."

00:07:25: If NATO including the United States were to try retake the corridor by force.

00:07:31: The Red Team still has a final step in reserve.

00:07:35: They never confront the Blue team openly with that during the war game but it clearly part of thinking Nuclear threats.

00:07:44: And then the next option would be to signal to NATO and the German federal government that we will also be quite prepared potentially employ nuclear weapons.

00:07:53: To signal this by activating some of our Eskander M missile units in Kaliningrad, and also Belarus….

00:07:59: …and inform Americans accordingly!

00:08:01: Are they prepared defend the Baltics on an emergency at a nuclear level?

00:08:06: I find it hard imagine... A quick reality check What the Red team is planning follows a familiar pattern.

00:08:16: Throughout the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly resorted to nuclear threats especially when Russia faced military setbacks.

00:08:29: This speech is from September of twenty-twenty two.

00:08:33: Putin declared that Russia would use all available means to defend itself and its people.

00:08:40: This is not a bluff, he said.

00:08:42: A few days later Russia formally annexed four Ukrainian regions.

00:08:48: The implication was clear Any attempt to retake those occupied territories would be portrayed as an attack on Russia itself.

00:08:57: Since then Russia has significantly broadened its nuclear doctrine.

00:09:02: In the past Nuclear weapons were reserved for situations in which the survival of the Russian state Was at stake.

00:09:10: Today, Moscow also refers to threats against its sovereignty or territorial integrity and those are deliberately elastic terms.

00:09:20: Another important change – if a non-nuclear state such as Ukraine attacks Russia with the support of nuclear power like the United States, Britain or France, Moscow now says it may treat that as joint attack.

00:09:36: in Russia's view could justify the use of nuclear weapons.

00:09:42: The aim is to deter the West from providing further military support to

00:09:46: Ukraine."

00:09:52: Back in the wargame, the blue team has informed that Russian forces in Lithuania are expanding and fortifying their Military Corridor.

00:10:01: This isn't at all about expending a humanitarian corridor.

00:10:04: It's about continuing the aggression.

00:10:06: it's about creating facts on-the-ground And holding onto territory that have been seized.

00:10:13: Strictly speaking, this could justify an attack.

00:10:16: But we shouldn't do them that favor.

00:10:18: What should be done is make absolutely clear Russia is now reinforcing its positions and in effect redrawing borders by force.

00:10:27: That was the defence minister.

00:10:30: The intelligence chief believes time has come for a military response.

00:10:35: We cannot simply allow russia to keep seizing territory unchallenged.

00:10:43: The Inspector General of the Bundeswehr is weighing in on.

00:10:51: You have to make clear, we are staying here.

00:11:13: And if you want to push us out... ...you will actively do something about

00:11:17: it.".

00:11:19: In essence he is proposing that NATO troops deploy around the corridor and hold a line preventing Russia from seizing any more Lithuanian territory.

00:11:30: The intelligence chief wants to know whether the forces already in place would be enough.

00:11:35: What does actually happen on our side?

00:11:37: That's the crucial question.

00:11:39: The Lithuanian side is relatively small, and at this point we only have two or three battalions there.

00:11:46: And they are responsible for the entire border

00:11:48: area.".

00:11:50: In other words... ...the troops currently available to Lithuania in the Bundeswehr….

00:11:55: …are not sufficient to stop the Russians.

00:11:58: But that would mean one possible response we'd have consider as reinforcing German forces That already stationed in Lithuanya We've said were looking into it but then deployed them.

00:12:10: The question is, under what framework should those forces be deployed?

00:12:16: The blue team still wants to avoid acting alone and respond as part of NATO or the European Union.

00:12:23: It's working on an alternative to invoking NATO's Collective Defence Clause.

00:12:28: The Inspector General has an idea.

00:12:30: If we want to involve the EU more strongly one option could use a European battlegroup.

00:12:38: Since May, the official term is European rapid deployment capacity.

00:12:43: All EU member states contribute forces to it – naval air land and cyber capabilities.

00:12:49: It's primarily designed for what are known as Petersburg tasks but could at least be offered a European option in this situation.

00:12:59: The so-called Petersburg Tasks define the European Union's traditional range of military missions humanitarian operations, evacuations stabilization missions monitoring and peacekeeping but not large-scale territorial defense.

00:13:16: The force itself is limited to a maximum of five thousand troops so the Europeans would first have to discuss who's willing to contribute what.

00:13:25: by definition however it has more stabilizing role therefore appears less offensively aggressive.

00:13:31: We could deploy it there and, for example to ask with monitoring the Corridor from the Lithuanian side so that things don't get out of hand roughly speaking.

00:13:41: In other words you would bring in additional forces but with a mandate form EU.

00:13:46: The NATO Secretary General however would rather avoid the course.

00:13:50: the blue team is now considering A European solution.

00:13:54: So just for your consideration, to make sure that we don't have a competition here and make sure everybody is on the same position.

00:14:02: That would I think send stronger message than every capital wondering are we acting under article five?

00:14:10: Under Article forty two point seven or underwater?

00:14:15: she's working on a plan that will allow nature to act without formally invoking article five.

00:14:22: In the previous episode, she proposed activating the Alliance's Regional Defense Plans.

00:14:28: She has now made this same proposal to US Secretary of State in an encrypted chat.

00:14:35: His reply comes as a surprise.

00:14:39: The U.S will support activating the defense plans with European forces if NATO allies have consensus Separately, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe will have heard through U.S.

00:14:50: national channels that he is to avoid any action that could involve US-Russian direct kinetic

00:14:56: activity.".

00:14:59: At first glance – That sounds like Washington is backing the plan!

00:15:04: In practice it means something else….

00:15:06: The United States supports activating NATO's defense plans but only under certain conditions.

00:15:13: First …the Europeans have to provide troops.

00:15:17: Second, all NATO allies must agree.

00:15:21: And third the United States want to avoid any direct military confrontation with Russia.

00:15:28: Europe cannot implement those plans on its own.

00:15:31: It still needs The United States.

00:15:41: Without Washington, modern NATO operations would be extremely difficult.

00:15:46: The US provides many capabilities that European allies either lack altogether or possess only unlimited numbers and with limited integration.

00:15:56: That includes air-and missile defense systems such as Patriot which protect cities troops and critical infrastructure from missiles and cruise missiles.

00:16:06: It also includes real-time intelligence and targeting.

00:16:09: Satellites, drones and other systems that reveal where an adversary is concentrating forces... ...where it's attacking and what its planning.

00:16:18: And finally there are deep precision strikes.

00:16:24: You may want to launch deep precision strike into Russia Both the capabilities and unity around doing that.

00:16:35: But, maybe one of most effective ways to stop a Russian aggression against NATO in its tracks if it's already

00:16:43: started.".

00:16:45: She is referring to the ability strike high-value military targets deep behind enemy lines Command posts, ammunition depots or supply routes inside Russia.

00:16:58: In her view, hypothetically speaking that could be one of the most effective ways to stop a Russian attack on NATO once it is already underway.

00:17:08: A quick reality check Since Washington announced plans to reduce its military capabilities in Europe.

00:17:16: European allies have been scrambling to strengthen their own Air and missile defence.

00:17:21: deep precision strike and intelligence are all high But for now, Europe still depends heavily on the US in each of those areas.

00:17:32: In the war game that's where the American government draws the line.

00:17:36: It is prepared to keep NATOs command structure in place and continue providing intelligence but U.S troops would not be deployed further east And American fighter jets wouldn't strike Russian targets.

00:17:50: There is another condition and politically it suits Washington as well.

00:17:56: US support depends on consensus among all NATO allies.

00:18:01: And there is no guarantee that countries such as Turkey or Slovakia would agree.

00:18:07: Formally, the U.S.

00:18:08: wouldn't have blocked anything.

00:18:11: Politically however, their responsibility for failure would rest with Europeans.

00:18:18: Then another idea comes in from Warsaw.

00:18:22: Poland proposes that NATO responds by contesting the Russian claim regarding A to AD over the so-called humanitarian corridor.

00:18:32: Poland's Prime Minister argues, that Russia should not be allowed to dictate the narrative.

00:18:38: Even after the invasion, NATO should make one thing absolutely clear From The Alliance's perspective Lithuania remains fully protected NATO territory.

00:18:50: In other words, NATO would neither recognize the Russian corridor nor accept that Russia controls access to Lithuanian territory or parts of its airspace.

00:19:00: We suggest humanitarian transport planes flying a designated route escorted by combat aircraft.

00:19:08: His proposal is for the Alliance to send humanitarian transport aircraft into Lithuania along a predetermined flight path – escorted by NATO fighter jets.

00:19:19: Moscow would be informed in advance about both the flights and the route.

00:19:24: Poland is ready, therefore to contribute escorting forces provided that mission is approved collectively by NATO.

00:19:33: Poland says it will prepared take part such a mission – provided it carried out as a whole.

00:19:41: The proposal effectively attests Would Moscow actually enforce its claim military means or back down?

00:19:50: In this scenario, the burden of escalation would lie with Russia not NATO.

00:19:56: The Alliance's Secretary General picks up the idea.

00:20:00: She wants to put it before allies in North Atlantic Council But every hour that passes gives Russian forces more time to reinforce and fortify their corridor in Lithuania.

00:20:13: The Blue Team no longer want to wait.

00:20:16: Neither do the Lithuanians who had long been skeptical about a purely European solution.

00:20:22: They invoke article forty-two point seven of the EU treaty, formally requesting assistance from other member states.

00:20:29: No vote is required.

00:20:32: Germany responds by committing European rapid deployment capacity and takes lead in planning and commanding mission.

00:20:40: The force which can deploy up to five thousand troops has limited military capabilities.

00:20:46: It's not designed push Russian forces back.

00:20:50: Its role is to establish a presence and help stabilize the situation.

00:20:55: But it's better than nothing!

00:21:03: By now, It is late afternoon at Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg.

00:21:08: Through window of room where blue team are sitting you can see a sports field.

00:21:13: The sun is shining.

00:21:15: A few soldiers jog past.

00:21:28: Russia has not invaded Lithuania.

00:21:31: There is no crisis meeting at the German chancellery, but The real german government as well aware of how fragile Europe's security Has become.

00:21:41: two months earlier Chancellor Friedrich Merz has put it this way Germany Is not at war?

00:21:48: But It does Not at peace either In our War game.

00:21:54: the teams have been sitting around the table since early that morning.

00:21:58: They have spent the day debating, weighing options making decisions and revising them.

00:22:04: Four rounds later – The simulation is approaching its end!

00:22:20: The blue team has prepared the country for a crisis, while searching for European response to Russia's aggression with NATO effectively blocked by the lack of full US support.

00:22:32: Later that evening, the North Atlantic Council is due to decide whether to activate NATO's regional defence plans and whether to test Russia's claim to the corridor by implementing the Polish proposal.

00:22:47: The two teams who have spent the entire day in separate rooms are about to meet.

00:22:53: But first, we return to the red team –the three men reflect on.

00:23:17: From their perspective, Germany acted with remarkable restraint.

00:23:22: Given the gravity of what has happened these are extremely weak responses and they're not sufficient to reverse this

00:23:30: situation.".

00:23:32: That was Arnd Freitag von Loringhofen who played Russia's foreign minister.

00:23:37: Franz Stefan Gardi in The Role Of Russia's Chief Of The General.

00:23:41: Stuff reflects on why.

00:23:43: What I'd find interesting to understand from a decision-making perspective on the opposing side is, To what extent this teeped response Is actually the result of a certain fear of escalation already being built into The political decision making process.

00:23:59: The keyword here being nuclear weapons And that is actually very realistic because fear of Escalation has shaped the German government's approach for many years in every respect when it comes to Ukraine, the wider war and so on.

00:24:14: And that dynamic played out here once

00:24:17: again.".

00:24:21: Then The Red Team walks down a short corridor that has separated from the blue team throughout the Wargame.

00:24:28: Come over we've got room!

00:24:31: The men & women who spent their day as adversaries are now sitting around same table.

00:24:36: In Wargaming terms this is known after action review.

00:24:41: The red team begins by sharing its assessment.

00:24:45: From the very beginning, we established this corridor while counting on the West taking far too long to respond.

00:24:53: And that's exactly what we achieved!

00:24:57: The blue team wants to know how its decisions were perceived by other side.

00:25:02: What kind of response was the red team expecting from us?

00:25:05: Did we fall short on those expectations?

00:25:07: How did you assess our reaction?

00:25:10: That was Roderick Kiesewetter who played Germany's defence minister.

00:25:14: I asked four times whether the opposing side is aware that we are essentially establishing this corridor here, with twelve thousand soldiers and relatively rapidly at that.

00:25:25: And that could potentially have led to combat operations as

00:25:29: well.".

00:25:31: Throughout the simulation The Red team was repeatedly surprised by Germany's restraint.

00:25:37: From its perspective Berlin's response fell short of what would've been needed to stop Russian.

00:25:42: advance focused on preparing the country for crisis, coordinating with allies and building political consensus.

00:25:53: At every step it considered how each decision would have been perceived beyond Germany's borders.

00:26:00: Peter Tauber who played the German Chancellor draws a broader conclusion But this leads me to the assumption that we are trapped in our old ways of thinking an unable-to adequately counter such a threat.

00:26:13: frankly We lack the stomach for an escalation.

00:26:16: Even our Chief of Defence never suggested that German troops want to fight and win.

00:26:20: Or, the Germans or allies are so good they will prevail!

00:26:24: But even if we had had the German Brigade Fight... ...to at least politically signal that The Alliance is serious And accepted it would cost countless lives.

00:26:34: Who would have survived that?

00:26:35: Politically That's a question.

00:26:37: We simply didn't have the nerve for It.

00:26:40: We're stuck in old mindsets where no match For Russian chess grandmaster.

00:26:45: This really shows that the initiative lies with The Attacker, especially when they're this well-prepared and coordinated.

00:26:51: And it also showed how we were trapped in our own way of thinking – coordinate with our allies, avoid kinetic action, wait and see….

00:26:58: In that sense?

00:26:59: That exercise reflects a certain reality... We do have mental constraints!

00:27:04: Our instinct is don't escalate, reassure the public—we DON'T HAVE THAT CHURCHELL MOMENT.

00:27:10: IN THAT SENSE THE WAR GAME IS ALSO A WAKEUP CALL ABOUT OUR OWN STRATEGIC COULTURE, ABOUT OUR MINDSET.

00:27:15: And what happens when it is turned against us?

00:27:19: Christiane Hoffmann believes the blue team made one crucial mistake.

00:27:24: I think our problem was that we never defined our objective, We said we needed to get ahead of events But that's a tactic not an objective.

00:27:33: It wasn't clear whether our objective Was to keep Germany out of the war Or to retake the corridor and restore Lithuania sovereignty Whatever cost.

00:27:45: Now we hear from Irana Mihalych, who played Germany's interior minister.

00:27:50: At what point should we as the blue team have acted differently to prevent the corridor form being established in first place?

00:27:56: That is key question!

00:27:58: But she also raises a broader question – how realistic would such surprise attack be outside of war game ?

00:28:06: In real world , she argues, NATO almost certainly detected movement of twelve thousand Russian troops long before they crossed border.

00:28:15: My sense is that in the real world someone would have noticed.

00:28:18: We would've had a full machinery of government behind us, The Foreign Office, the Interior Ministry... ...the Chancellery all with their agencies, advisors and analysts.

00:28:27: They will give much clearer picture what was happening And probably put as very different position to respond.

00:28:35: We knew Russia was demanding humanitarian corridor through Lithuania.

00:28:40: What we might be able influence was cost for creating it.

00:28:45: If there was already a realistic possibility that Russia would try to establish such a corridor and the military experts here can judge it better than I could, we should have moved in with much stronger true presence.

00:28:58: And made even the attempt far more

00:29:00: costly.".

00:29:02: Gerhard Konrad who played Germany's intelligence chief agrees.

00:29:06: In his view The threshold for Allied action Would've been reached much earlier.

00:29:12: Based on the initial scenario, The Alliance would already have had grounds to invoke Article V. NATO territory was under threat from an asymmetric concentration of Russian forces.

00:29:22: One thing has to be said very clearly In this situation neither NATO nor the European Union will actually been able to mount adequate military response Quite simply because the forces weren't there.

00:29:34: They just warned enough troops.

00:29:38: That is a crucial question.

00:29:41: How would NATO and Lithuania in particular respond during the early stages of a looming escalation?

00:29:49: In our simulation, Russian forces established a military corridor within ours.

00:29:55: In Lithuanya itself that drew some criticism.

00:29:59: We were told we had underestimated the country's willingness to fight.

00:30:05: At the same time though one thing is clear – Lithuonia cannot defend itself against Russia on its own.

00:30:11: It depends on its allies.

00:30:14: That is precisely why our war game was never intended to test Lithuania's battlefield tactics.

00:30:21: it Was designed to test political decision-making in Berlin.

00:30:26: Germany is deploying a brigade to Lithuanya and In the real crisis, Berlin would become one of the key political actors.

00:30:35: But The Lithuanian perspective Is Of course essential.

00:30:39: so After the German version of our wargame was published, my colleague and I travelled to Lithuania.

00:30:47: Among others we spoke with the country's Chief of Defence General Raimundis Wexnora and asked him about our scenario.

00:30:55: Our indicators on warnings from NATO.

00:30:58: usually we see much more in advance what is going on.

00:31:03: He says a military build-up would not come out of nowhere.

00:31:07: Modern surveillance systems can detect large troop concentrations.

00:31:12: And we also organize our exercise accordingly... Whenever Russia conducts exercises or moves troops, he says Lithuania responds with exercises of its own — matching or even exceeding the scale.

00:31:27: Military movements along the border are closely mirrored.

00:31:31: We found out that Germans were very hesitant to act if there is no let's say American leader who leads the way in NATO.

00:31:39: So, in this scenario they failed to take decisive military action right?

00:31:45: Is that something that worries

00:31:46: you?".

00:31:47: What I can say only if... In just case so.. He also suggests that Germany's political decision-making processes may need to adapt to military realities but he is quick to add that he has complete confidence and The German Brigade.

00:32:02: But what i would say after meetings with not everyone is quite so optimistic.

00:32:12: During our reporting trip we also spoke to Aruna's compass, a Lithuanian drone expert who volunteered to fight in Ukraine.

00:32:21: He believes the course of the Veld wargame as realistic.

00:32:25: Actually from my perspective it was quite realistic simulation.

00:32:30: The modern battlefield is transparent.

00:32:33: Drones can see every movement.

00:32:35: According to Compass, neither NATO nor the Lithuanian army is prepared for this.

00:32:42: And he says that this alone may be enough to establish control over the Suvalkiy Gap.

00:32:48: You can't control this gap by drones from both sides!

00:32:58: Would a Russian offensive like one planned in our wargame actually succeed?

00:33:06: It's a question we've asked ourselves many times over the past months, while preparing The Wargame on day of exercise itself and producing this podcast.

00:33:27: Of course, it's possible that the advance would stall.

00:33:31: And there'd then be a forty-eight hour window where perhaps... Yeah just like I'll take years?

00:33:36: Yes but for this scenario i had options of escalating to nuclear level and saying any attack from Poland so to speak will be met with a nuclear first strike or something in the event that the advanced stalls.

00:33:52: But predicting future was never point at war game.

00:33:56: The goal was to observe how decisions are made under uncertainty and identify where Germany's weaknesses lie.

00:34:05: We didn't know in advance whether that would work.

00:34:08: For us, this war game is an experiment too!

00:34:12: we asked ourselves a lot of questions.

00:34:15: Is the single day enough for meaningful insights?

00:34:19: Will participants truly step into their roles?

00:34:22: How much should we script through rules, briefings and the scenario?

00:34:27: And how much should be simply let unfold.

00:34:31: Can a tool normally used behind closed doors... ...be opened up in way that creates genuine journalistic

00:34:38: insight?".

00:34:41: For the blue team Chancellor there is one final question still hanging over our wargame.

00:34:47: Finally!

00:34:48: Let me ask this What are you going to do with results?

00:34:53: Yeah, what do we do with the results?

00:34:55: At Veldt – We've turned them into this podcast and you have hopefully so far enjoyed listening to it.

00:35:02: But….

00:35:03: What does research community take away from that?

00:35:20: What we primarily wanted to examine with this scenario was how decisions are made inside a simulated cabinet.

00:35:27: Wargames were not designed to recreate every aspect of reality, if we had tried to model everything perfectly We would never have discovered the blind spot we found.

00:35:37: The real question here is How do people respond in escalation?

00:35:40: They don't even recognize as an escalation because they've never seen anything like it before.

00:35:47: One finding runs through the entire exercise, and it is something the blue team itself eventually recognized.

00:35:55: Team Germany spent a long time acting according to its own logic instead of trying to see this situation though eyes on its

00:36:02: opponent.".

00:36:04: Now that doesn't exactly mean how people in Kremlin think but simply seeing an impotent might interpret our actions or comment upon them what conclusions they could draw can be incredibly valuable.

00:36:16: It reminds you that your message may be received very differently from how you intended it.

00:36:21: Philipp Jan Scheffer believes this reflects a pattern typical of Germany.

00:36:26: The idea the world should function according to rules-based order is a very German way of thinking.

00:36:33: We assume their rules are ideally rooted in international law And if they aren't, we still believe know what other side will behave because we protect our assumptions onto them.

00:36:44: In many ways, we're looking at the world through our own lens.

00:36:47: A war game can make those blind spots visible.

00:36:51: Seen that way this War Game is not a conclusion it's just starting point That one of the great strength of War Gaming.

00:37:00: It helps us identify where to focus next.

00:37:03: Future exercises can build on what we've learned here.

00:37:05: They involve military staffs more detailed intelligence and much more complex scenarios.

00:37:11: But now we know where to look and why haven't been looking so far.

00:37:16: Wargaming isn't about having all the answers, it's about asking the right questions.

00:37:23: Both Philip & Joe have taken part in countless war games which made one final question particularly interesting for us How did they judge ours?

00:37:34: I'd say it actually exceeded our expectations because the unscripted nature of the exercise revealed things we simply couldn't have anticipated.

00:37:44: Wargames are a little bit like modern art, they're not necessarily meant to be pretty or make you feel good.

00:37:49: They're not Hollywood movies but made too thick.

00:37:53: The future cannot be predicted.

00:37:55: But once again how realistic was our scenario and the way your assimilation unfolds?

00:38:01: After the war game, we put that question to many of the participants as well.

00:38:05: Including former NATO spokesperson Oana Longuescu.

00:38:08: I think the War Game scenario is actually pretty accurate... ...to what i think and many others That in a way Russia could become even more dangerous to NATO after some sort of peace in Ukraine especially if it's a bad piece, if its an Ukrainian capitulation.

00:38:32: Because that will give Russia time and resources to reconstitute much faster And be emboldened because If it sees aggression pays in Ukraine It'll continue pushing until it finds resistance.

00:38:52: She believes Russia is likely to become an even greater threat to NATO once the war in Ukraine ends, especially if it ends on Moscow's terms.

00:39:02: That assessment echoes the view of Aleksandr Gabyev who played the Russian president and our war game.

00:39:09: As someone that has always been a committed pacifist I've gone through quite a long journey myself And i have come to believe that European rearmament really isn't investment in peace.

00:39:20: If Europe does not rearm, there is no deterrence.

00:39:24: And without deterrence the Russian leadership starts getting this kind of ideas.

00:39:28: There has to be a level of deterrence where both sides meet on equal terms.

00:39:33: Only then can you seriously start talking about arms control again.

00:39:40: The moment NATO is forced to defend itself, deterrence has already failed In our wargame, the blue team found themselves in exactly that position.

00:39:51: Russia had already decided to attack.

00:39:54: The moment for deterrence had passed.

00:39:57: Here is security expert Nikolanger again, whom you met first in episode three.

00:40:02: He observed the exercise and Hamburg from the sidelines.

00:40:06: Yes that was part of this scenario.

00:40:09: Deterrence has already begun a road.

00:40:11: That's why we ended up with this situation In the first place And thats' why We have to ask question again What does effective deterrence actually look like?

00:40:21: After the end of Cold War, Germany dramatically reduced its armed forces believing Russia no longer posed a serious threat.

00:40:30: That assumption proved to be wrong.

00:40:33: You have let go any illusion that there's good will on other side.

00:40:37: you have assume the worst and then probably getting close reality from very beginning.

00:40:43: make it clear to enemy don't even think about an attack because consequences are severe And you have to be able to demonstrate that credibly.

00:40:51: Increased military presence is a good start, but... ...that presence needs the right capabilities and it has to make clear.

00:40:58: if we take one step further our long-range weapons will hit you!

00:41:02: Don't do it – It won't end well for

00:41:04: you.".

00:41:08: Before we end….

00:41:09: One final thought from Oana Lungescu.

00:41:12: She says.. I think the war game was very realistic, unfortunately.

00:41:24: But it's good to be prepared for all these scenarios especially right now when you see that we have to think the

00:41:30: unthinkable.".

00:41:32: Europe's adversaries and its allies understand one thing above everything else she says… We in Europe must continue to strengthen our defences... ...to strengthen our resilience or preparedness because both our adversaries, but also our allies the United States only understand strength.

00:42:02: According to her that is why Germany and Europe must become capable of defending themselves not to wage war... ...but to prevent one.

00:42:19: This was the fifth and final episode of Ernst Feier.

00:42:23: What if Russia attacks NATO inside a German Wargame?

00:42:27: Thank you for listening!

00:42:30: If you have any questions or remarks, write us an email to wargameatvelt.de.

00:42:36: That's wargame at welt.de.

00:42:44: Script and Storytelling.

00:42:45: Karolina Drüten & Antonia Beckermann.

00:42:48: Production & Sound Design.

00:42:49: Marvin Schwarz Project Leads Antonia Beckermann Karolina Drüten & Karoline Turzer Research Support Jan Rosenkranz Academic Guidance Josef Werbowski and Philipp Jan Schäfer from the German Wargaming Center at Helmut Schmidt University, the Bundeswehr-University in Hamburg.

00:43:07: Cover design – Dominik Schmidt.

00:43:10: Our special thanks go to the participants of The Wargame David McAllister Jörg Asmussen Gerhard Konrad Alexander Gabuyev Franz Stefan Gadi Christiane Hoffmann Roderich Kiesewetter Bart Wommey Kot Arndt Freitag von Lorringhofen Oana Lungescu Irene Mialic.

00:43:36: We're grateful to the fellow journalists who lend their voices... ...to the English-language version of our German participants' quotes.

00:43:55: We would also like to thank the Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg for providing The Venue, as well as Ellen Edwards, Malene Badun, Tobias Graboff, Till Henniges, Karl-Hufnagel, Elias Jakob, Trosten Kodalle, Nikolange and Wim Ortt for their support on site.

00:44:16: And Nanna Brink, Kai Brinkmann & Nils Lange.