Episode 1: Deception

00:00:05: Perhaps we should sink a ship.

00:00:07: I mean, we're past the point of just summoning The Russian Ambassador aren't we?

00:00:10: Strictly speaking it could justify an attack but We shouldn't do them that favor!

00:00:14: The Russians will not be deterred if we throw cotton wool at them.

00:00:18: Can anyone in this table assess what the Russians actually want?

00:00:22: What is their objective?

00:00:23: To make the Baltics

00:00:24: Russian?!

00:00:25: I'd rather say to demonstrate NATO on the EU's inability to act And then...to Make the Baltic Russian.

00:00:31: I am urging you This now matter for very top level.

00:00:34: You need to speak with Trump directly.

00:00:36: You are the chancellor now, Mr.

00:00:38: Tauber.

00:00:38: I believe you can do it.

00:00:43: Imagine this It is Tuesday October twenty seventh.

00:00:47: Twenty-twenty six Dawn breaks over Berlin's government.

00:00:51: district Lights are on in the federal chancellery.

00:00:55: The Chancellor has convened his most senior ministers and advisors for an emergency meeting.

00:01:01: The reason Russian troops are amassed at the Lithuanian border apparently preparing to cross into NATO territory.

00:01:10: The scenario is fictional, but it's not far-fetched.

00:01:14: In security and political leadership circles there are broad agreements on one point Russia seeks to reassert itself as a dominant power in Europe.

00:01:25: We're Russia's next target And we already are in harm's way.

00:01:33: This was NATO Secretary General Mark Rutter At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney put it this way.

00:01:45: That was the president of EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen.

00:02:12: From a European perspective, another factor adds to uncertainty The United States no longer appears predictable as security partner under President Donald Trump.

00:02:31: Against that backdrop we ran an experiment.

00:02:37: It is a Monday morning in December, twenty-twenty five.

00:02:40: We are inside the classroom at Helmut Schmidt University – The university of German armed forces and Hamburg.

00:02:48: Microphones stand on each seat around an U shaped table.

00:02:52: In front them are nameplates Federal Chancellor Defense Minister Intelligence Chief.

00:03:00: But this isn't the real cabinet.

00:03:03: Instead We gathered retired military leaders, former top officials, diplomats and security experts... ...and asked them to take on the roles of Germany's federal government….

00:03:13: …and its allies for one day.

00:03:19: A second team plays The Kremlin – they face off against each other!

00:03:45: My name is Karolina Drüten.

00:03:47: I am the International Security Correspondent at The German Media Outlet Welt.

00:03:52: This is Ernst Fahl.

00:03:54: What if Russia Attacks NATO Inside a German Wargame?

00:03:59: Episode one Deception.

00:04:08: We first published the German version of this podcast on February fifth, twenty-twenty six.

00:04:14: It sparked a wide debate in Germany and beyond, about Europe's readiness, NATO's cohesion.

00:04:20: A new war game tests German reaction time, should Russia take advantage of gaps in NATO protections?

00:04:57: Those reactions show that the questions our war game raised go far beyond Germany.

00:05:04: It's why we decided to produce an English version of this podcast.

00:05:09: A War Game is, in essence a thought experiment.

00:05:13: People step into specific roles For example members from German government or representatives of Kremlin and work through crisis scenario.

00:05:23: The idea is simple You try to think through a real emergency before it actually happens.

00:05:30: Because identifying weaknesses in advance helps address them.

00:05:34: It's bit like fire drill If the Fire Brigade arrives too late at burning house, The response is reviewed and plans are improved.

00:05:44: Governments and militaries conduct these kinds of simulations all time.

00:05:49: The difference our case their findings usually remain classified.

00:05:55: we decided to make ours public.

00:05:58: Because how decisions are made in a crisis and what those decisions are concerns all of

00:06:04: us.".

00:06:05: In recent years, journalists have begun experimenting with public war games as well.

00:06:11: One notable example was the War Game by Sky News which explored how Britain might respond to Russian attack.

00:06:19: We wanted this experiment to be run with the same level of professionalism as close-door simulations held in ministries or parliament.

00:06:28: That's why we asked The German Wargaming Centre, to support the project.

00:06:33: It is based at Helmut Schmidt University – the university of the German armed forces and Hamburg.

00:06:39: They normally design and conduct war games for companies government ministries and other public institutions.

00:06:46: In the months leading up to this simulation, they closely advised us.

00:06:50: On the game day itself... ...they are responsible for adjudication.

00:06:55: They structure the process and document their participants' decisions.

00:07:00: One side is the blue team.

00:07:02: It represents friendly forces in our case The German federal government.

00:07:07: This team was led by the german chancellor.

00:07:10: We have a common goal.

00:07:12: In the original simulation, most participants spoke German.

00:07:17: For this version we translated their original statements into English and had them voiced by fellow journalists.

00:07:24: We have a shared objective to push back against Russia To support our allies And make clear that Germany is ready play an active role in The war game.

00:07:34: Peter Tauber plays the role of Chancellor.

00:07:38: As former Secretary General of the Christian Democratic Union, he worked closely with former Chancellor Angela Merkel.

00:07:45: He later served as State Secretary at the Ministry of Defense.

00:07:49: He left politics in twenty-twenty one but is now stepping back into that world for a day.

00:07:54: I never wanted to sit on this chair because i know someone who sat in it for sixteen years Now!

00:08:00: At least In This Wargame...I get too.

00:08:03: As chancellor his task Is To Hold Everything Together.

00:08:07: He has to steer his government through the crisis, make decisions under time pressure and at the same time ensure that Germany presents a united front to the outside world.

00:08:19: In order for our participants be able to speak openly there are no sitting ministers or current office holders on the table.

00:08:27: Everyone here though can draw from experience.

00:08:30: They know how to navigate a crisis but they do not have to worry about classified information or the sensitivities of a governing coalition.

00:08:39: Yes, Jörg Asmussen today I'm the Finance Minister.

00:08:42: Christiane Hoffmann in my most recent role as Deputy Government Spokesperson in the previous German Coalition government.

00:08:51: My name is Roderick Kiesewetter and spent thirty years at Bundeswehr.

00:08:57: In this war game, I'm serving as the Inspector General of The Bundeswehr.

00:09:04: That was my role in real life as

00:09:06: well.".

00:09:07: You'll get to know the rest.

00:09:14: My name is Franz-Stefan Gardi.

00:09:33: I'm a military analyst and today, i am the Russian Military Chief.

00:09:39: As The United States scales back its security commitments in Europe expecting the continent to take responsibility for it's own defense Germany – Europe's largest economy–is playing a pivotal role In A Crisis in the Baltics.

00:09:54: It would be NATO's logistical backbone And one of its decisive political actors.

00:10:00: Berlin has also vowed to build the strongest conventional army on the continent.

00:10:06: But is Germany ready to lead?

00:10:09: For our assimilation, we developed a scenario – it's entirely fictional but not far-fetch'd!

00:10:16: To make it plausible….

00:10:17: We sought input from politicians, military officers analysts Ukraine experts and specialists from Lithuania.

00:10:26: At this point I want stress one thing We are not trying to predict the future.

00:10:31: This scenario is NOT meant to generate fear or fuel escalation, it's a tool that tests how Germany would function in real emergency – where we're capable of acting and where we

00:10:45: aren't.".

00:10:48: The scenario you'll hear concludes on October twenty-twenty six.

00:10:53: Imagine that in months leading up until then Russia & Ukraine agree with a ceasefire.

00:10:59: Negotiators on both sides sign a deal that freezes the current front line.

00:11:05: At the same time, The Kremlin launches A Charme Offensive.

00:11:09: It offers Germany long-term gas contracts at discounts of up to twenty percent and promotes investment in eastern German industry.

00:11:18: Russian state media suggest that In Europe only Germany can open new phase of cooperation.

00:11:26: In the Baltics, however tensions are rising.

00:11:30: Russia and Belarus begin a military exercise near the Lithuanian border.

00:11:35: It is now September twenty-twenty six.

00:11:38: The news broadcasts you're about to hear were generated with artificial intelligence Despite the official announcement of a full withdrawal.

00:11:49: around twelve thousand Russian troops remain stationed in Western Belarus.

00:11:53: after the Zapat twenty-two-six exercise In Vilnius, concern is growing that Moscow intends to expand its presence along NATO's border on a permanent basis.

00:12:06: Lithuanians are uneasy.

00:12:09: Russia has used military exercises as cover for military action before.

00:12:14: During the Sapaad- Twenty-Twenty One drills, Moscow moved large amounts of equipment into Belarus.

00:12:21: In February, twenty-twenty two Russian and Belarusian forces were positioned unusually close to the Ukrainian border during another exercise.

00:12:31: Shortly afterward – The assault on Kiev began!

00:12:45: Shortly afterward, the Kremlin claims without providing any evidence that a humanitarian emergency is unfolding in Kaliningrad.

00:12:55: Kaliningrat is a Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea –a small piece of Russian territory cut off from the rest of the country.

00:13:04: To reach it by land goods have to pass through Lithuania or Belarus.

00:13:09: Moscow demands passage for what's called as humanitarian convoy across Lithuanian Territory.

00:13:16: The Lithuanian government refuses.

00:13:18: It fears the trucks may be carrying military equipment.

00:13:23: Ever since that moment, lorries with unknown cargo have been lining up on the Belarussian side of the border.

00:13:30: And then something else happens.

00:13:35: Two police officers had been killed near the Belarusian border in Lithuania.

00:13:40: According to authorities a freight train arriving from Moscow made an unscheduled stop.

00:13:46: A patrol unit inspected the train and encountered armed men who opened fire.

00:13:51: Lithuania's intelligence service says the suspects may be Russian special forces infiltrated for sabotage operations.

00:14:01: Suddenly, a video appears online that puts Germany at center of crisis.

00:14:07: It shows man in uniform.

00:14:10: They are allegedly abusing russian-speaking teenagers.

00:14:16: Russian state media claimed that the men are German soldiers.

00:14:20: Shortly afterward, Moscow demands the immediate withdrawal of the German Brigade stationed in Lithuania.

00:14:27: The video is fake though.

00:14:29: German troops were not present at this time and question but it's too late!

00:14:35: The propaganda machine was already in motion.

00:14:39: In todays world what matters isn't always true But people believe And Russia knows exactly how to shape its own narrative.

00:14:49: In our simulation, we therefore also recreate the Russian disinformation space There.

00:14:55: this story sounds very different Like in this clip from an influencer Also generated with artificial intelligence.

00:15:03: German soldiers are beating russian kids just because they spoke russian.

00:15:08: Eighty years ago Germans came with tanks.

00:15:10: Now They come with NATO.

00:15:12: Is that defense or is the preparation for a war against Russian people?

00:15:18: Then, the online banking system used by millions of customers at Germany's savings banks goes down.

00:15:25: Some ATMs stop working as well.

00:15:28: The cause is cyber-attack on the bank's central IT service provider.

00:15:33: Who was behind it initially unclear?

00:15:41: Our scenario describes Tuesday October twenty seventh early morning at the Federal Chancellery.

00:15:49: For hours, reports have been coming in from Vilnius, Warsaw and Brussels.

00:15:55: Lithuania has informed Berlin that Russian troops are on combat formation along the Belarusian border.

00:16:02: Once everyone has taken their seats around the table The Chancellor opens a meeting.

00:16:16: What explanation do we give the people in Germany?

00:16:20: Second, and this concerns me just as much.

00:16:23: What measures are needed to protect the population?

00:16:25: what steps can The Bundeswehr take internally To ensure it can act quickly if necessary?

00:16:32: And Are there additional areas particularly In foreign policy towards Poland and other neighbors where We need to act now?

00:16:40: I would welcome input from the respective experts around This table.

00:16:45: The Defence Minister picks up the threat.

00:16:47: He is played by Roderich Kiesewetter, a member of the Bundestag for the Christian Democratic Union.

00:16:53: Thank you Mr Chancellor.

00:16:55: First of all I see that our Bundeswehr forces in Lithuania are under intense pressure.

00:17:01: i strongly advise That in coordination with foreign minister we send A clear signal to the Lithuanian public and beyond that Our soldiers Are In Full Accordance With The Law.

00:17:11: Eberhard Zorn also addresses the situation of German armed forces in Lithuania.

00:17:17: As Inspector General of Bundeswehr, he is Germany's highest ranking soldier and serves as Federal Government's Senior Military Advisor.

00:17:25: We are currently in process to build out the brigade into full strength.

00:17:31: That means we have two German battalions stationed there.

00:17:35: Once fully built up The Brigade will consist three combat units two German units and one made up of troops from various NATO countries under German command.

00:17:46: That means Germany has to coordinate closely with the other contributing

00:17:50: nations.".

00:17:52: As far as I know, The Netherlands and Norway are contributing troops there – that means we should first sit down with our multinational partners at the military level in compare assessments both of the operational situation.

00:18:09: The government spokesperson, Christiane Hoffmann gives an overview of how the situation is portrayed in.

00:18:26: In this simulation, the role is played by Irene Mihalic a member of parliament from The Green Party.

00:18:42: Thank you Mr Chancellor!

00:18:43: I would like to point out that we are currently under attack – the cyberattack on central IT provider Germany's saving banks targets critical infrastructure.

00:18:53: In my view, we need to determine whether the server outage is affecting not only the online banking of millions of customers and roughly a third of ATMs but also potentially our broader economic capacity.

00:19:05: The finance minister played by the economist Jörg Asmussen was concerned about partial outage at the savings banks.

00:19:15: At this moment, millions are unable access their online accounts.

00:19:20: One third of the ATMs are not working.

00:19:23: We need to clarify quickly what cash reserves available at Germany's central bank and whether additional cash could be transported to Germany from neighboring countries, a short notice because when people stand in front an empty ATM it unsettles them.

00:19:38: Securing cash reserve also falls under police powers to prevent and divert danger And that is NOT something the federal government can simply order on its own.

00:19:48: It requires coordination with the federal states, for example to secure cash transports and manage access to cash.

00:19:55: Even if we were to advise people to withdraw more cash as a precaution I do not want to see a repeat of what we experienced during this pandemic.

00:20:04: Germany is a Federal system.

00:20:07: Many internal security responsibilities lie within the sixteen federal States Not With The National Government.

00:20:15: That means that Berlin cannot simply issue orders.

00:20:18: It has to coordinate.

00:20:22: Lines are forming at ATMs across Germany in Duisburg, Magdeburg, Augsburg.

00:20:29: The scenes look the same everywhere.

00:20:32: People are worried about their savings.

00:20:35: They're withdrawing more cash than usual In some places tensions arising.

00:20:41: Do we have any indication?

00:20:43: But what the financial sector is experiencing right now originated in Russia.

00:20:48: The Intelligence Chief Response In real life, Gerhard Konrad served as an officer of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service BND.

00:20:58: The timing and the way this operation fits into the broader build-up of hybrid measures in recent months suggests that it does.

00:21:06: we have to operate on that assumption.

00:21:10: Inside the blue team –the focus is scattered.

00:21:14: Each ministry is concentrating on its own immediate concerns.

00:21:18: The cyber attack, the savings banks….

00:21:21: …the public mood in Germany... ...the brigade in Lithuania Then – the Foreign Minister asks to speak.

00:21:28: Mr Chancellor, dear colleagues I'm not sure everyone here is grasping this seriousness of a situation.

00:21:34: This is Michael Roth A long-serving foreign policy figure from the Social Democratic Party.

00:21:41: He previously served as a minister of state for Europe at Germany's foreign office.

00:21:46: Before this meeting, I spoke with my Lithuanian counterpart.

00:21:49: They are deeply shaken.

00:21:51: they expect to clear signal of solidarity from us.

00:21:53: and now In Lithuania there is fear that Ukraine was only the beginning And that the Baltic states could be next on the Kremlin list.

00:22:04: in reality phone lines Now would be buzzing and capitals across Europe and beyond Not only Lithuania would be reacting, NATO will already be launching political consultations and military planning.

00:22:18: In our war game we deliberately focus on the response of the German federal government not because other actors are unimportant but any simulation has limits And Because We want to understand one central question Is Germany prepared for a real crisis?

00:22:36: Where do our weaknesses lie?

00:22:39: We have, however assigned several key international roles.

00:22:43: The US Secretary of State the NATO Secretary General the Polish Prime Minister and the President of the European Commission.

00:22:52: On the day of war game they are not present in Hamburg but join individual calls from Washington Brussels and Warsaw just as they would reality.

00:23:03: You will get to know them over next episodes.

00:23:07: One more important point Before the simulation began, participants received only this scenario as preparation.

00:23:16: On the day itself they act freely.

00:23:19: My colleagues and I are present as observers but we do not interfere.

00:23:24: There are however rules.

00:23:27: The war game has four rounds And each round must end with decisions to which then other side can respond.

00:23:36: During the simulation, The Blue Team representing the German government is separated from the Red team, representing Russia by a narrow corridor.

00:23:45: The teams cannot hear each other.

00:23:49: On the Russian side three men sit around a table and deliberate –the president sums up their plans.

00:23:56: We want to fracture NATO's unity.

00:24:00: The man speaking here knows Putin system from inside.

00:24:04: Most participants in the English version of this podcast are voiced by fellow journalists, but the voice you're hearing here belongs to Aleksandr Gabyev himself.

00:24:13: Gabyev grew up in Moscow as a young journalist.

00:24:17: he reported from The Center Of Russian Power – the Kremlin Between two thousand seven and twenty fourteen.

00:24:24: He met Vladimir Putin spoke with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov And traveled with then-President Dmitry Medvediev.

00:24:32: And Gabyev says no one will stop Putin from attacking another country if he believes, that he can get away with it.

00:24:40: If he wakes up on morning whether in Kremlin or at his residence outside Moscow and says In three months we are marching into the Baltics Who is going to tell him?

00:24:52: Sir you're out of your mind.

00:24:54: That's too dangerous.

00:24:55: We aren't doing it.

00:24:58: According to this logic This is the most dangerous moment.

00:25:03: When the war in Ukraine ends, Russia will have a massive army larger than before-the-war and with extensive recent combat experience.

00:25:12: Europe by contrast has only just begun to rearm.

00:25:16: this gaping time Is extremely dangerous And it's precisely this window that our War Game explores.

00:25:24: Gabyev and his two colleagues Have to think like The Man In The Kremlin.

00:25:30: Their objective is not simply territory.

00:25:33: It's to render nature

00:25:34: unable-to-act.".

00:25:36: Now Franz Stefan Gadi speaks, he is an Austrian military analyst.

00:25:42: in the simulation He plays Russia's Military Chief.

00:25:46: Ultimately this isn't about the Baltic States.

00:25:49: it is about reshaping Europe security architecture so that it aligns more closely with our interests than current one does.

00:25:57: To achieve We have to weaken NATO and undermine the European Union at its

00:26:03: foundations.".

00:26:05: What Gadi is describing mirrors what Vladimir Putin himself has demanded.

00:26:10: Shortly before launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, The Russian president gave a televised address in which he laid out rolling back the bloc's military capability and infrastructure in Europe to where they were in nineteen ninety-seven, when the NATO Russia founding act was signed.

00:26:36: That would mean rolling back The Alliance to a time before Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania or the Baltic states had joined.

00:26:45: No NATO combat troops no bases no infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe.

00:26:52: In effect It would create a security order in which Russia helps decide which countries are protected and which aren't.

00:27:01: In the war game, The Russian military chief defines precisely that as the objective.

00:27:07: Our objective remains the same We want to European Security architecture That closely resembles one in place in nineteen ninety seven Meaning no permanent NATO forces stationed in Eastern Europe.

00:27:24: Our advantage is speed, the ability to make decisions quickly.

00:27:28: In that regard we are certainly ahead of Germany and

00:27:31: NATO.".

00:27:33: While democracies have to debate and balance competing interests decision-making in the Kremlin as far more centralized The president wants us establish a humanitarian corridor.

00:27:46: A brief reminder Moscow claims that Kaliningrad is facing a humanitarian emergency and uses that as justification for what it calls a relief convoy.

00:27:59: Trucks from Belarus are supposed to cross Lithuanian territory, to deliver alleged aid supplies to the Russian

00:28:05: exclave.".

00:28:07: Let me stress one point – From purely military perspective we can establish fire control over the Swarki Gep without having deployed troops directly into Lithuania.

00:28:19: What the Russian team is outlining amounts to nothing less than an invasion of Lithuania, and attack on a NATO member state.

00:28:29: Even if Moscow tries to disguise it as humanitarian measure German troops are stationed in Lithuanya too.

00:28:37: The question now whether the german government recognizes what's coming And if together with its allies It can prevent that.

00:28:46: That is what episode two is about.

00:28:49: This was Ernst Fall.

00:28:52: What if Russia Attacks Nature?

00:28:54: Inside a German Wargame.

00:28:56: The series consists of five episodes.

00:28:59: If you have any questions or remarks, write us an email to wargame at weld.de.

00:29:06: That's wargameatwelt.de.

00:29:12: Script and Storytelling Karolina Drüten & Antonia Beckermann.

00:29:16: Production and Sound Design.

00:29:18: Marvin Schwarz Project Leeds, Antonia Beckermann Karolina Drüten and Karoline Tuertzer.

00:29:24: Research Support Jan Rosenkranz.

00:29:27: Academic Guidance Josef Werbowski & Philipp Jan Schäfer from the German Wargaming Center at Helmut Schmidt University – The Bundeswehr-University in Hamburg.

00:29:35: Cover Design Dominic Schmidt.

00:29:38: Our special thanks go to the participants of the wargame David McAllister Jörg Asmussen Gerhard Konrad Alexander Gabouyev Franz Stefan Gadi.

00:30:05: We're grateful to the fellow journalists who lend their voices... ...to the English-language version of our German participants' quotes.

00:30:18: Philipp Fritz, Eric Kirschbaum, Chris Lunday, Nikolas Potter James Rothwell and Konstantin Schreiber.

00:30:27: We would also like to thank the Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg for providing The Venue as well as Ellen Edwards Malene Badun Tobias Grabowth Till Henniges Karl-Hufnagel Elias Jakob Torsten Kodalle Nicolange & Wim Ord for their support on site And Nanna Brink Kai Brinkmann and Nils Lange for their valuable contributions to the conceptual discussions.